Load Advisor

Near-zero and negative prices dominate the overnight predispatch window across NSW, VIC, and QLD right now, making the next several hours the standout load-shifting opportunity of the day. NSW prices are currently at $71.30/MWh and will collapse to sub-$1/MWh — with pockets as low as -$30.68/MWh — from 08:30 AEST through to approximately 15:30 AEST as the overnight trough deepens. VIC is the most aggressive market: predispatch shows prices falling to -$85.30/MWh around 12:30 AEST, with a sustained band of -$34 to -$68/MWh across the 10:30–15:30 AEST window. QLD prices are also below zero from now through to approximately 15:00 AEST, ranging -$3 to -$25/MWh, though shallower than the southern states. The optimal load-shifting target window NEM-wide is 10:00–15:00 AEST, where multiple regions simultaneously carry negative or near-zero prices.

SA is the exception and the alert for this advisory. Prices in SA are elevated — currently $68.84/MWh — and predispatch shows continued volatility with spikes to $198–$305/MWh forecast across the 08:30–12:00 AEST period. SA flexible loads should not be dispatched during this window; if curtailment is possible, do so. The SA market is structurally disconnected from the mainland trough today and represents the highest exposure risk for any load that cannot be deferred. TAS also sits stubbornly around $88/MWh through most of the morning with only modest softening to the mid-$60s around 11:00–13:00 AEST, offering limited but real shifting value in that narrow band.

The clearest actionable windows by region: NSW and VIC — schedule all shiftable load (water heating, EV charging, refrigeration pre-cooling, industrial processes) to run from 09:00 through 14:00 AEST, prioritising the 11:00–13:00 AEST core where VIC prices are forecast deepest negative and NSW sits at or near zero. QLD — shift load into the 08:30–14:30 AEST band, avoiding the 06:00 AEST ramp-up currently visible in predispatch. SA — hold all flexible load; the price environment does not support shifting today until after 16:00 AEST when conditions are expected to normalise. TAS — a modest opportunity exists around 11:00–13:00 AEST but the savings are smaller and predispatch confidence is rated "good" rather than "excellent" across most of the window.

Across the NEM, the most valuable single window is VIC 11:00–13:00 AEST today, where prices are forecast at -$60 to -$85/MWh against a baseline spot price of $64.29/MWh — a potential swing of over $125/MWh per interval. Traders and demand-response aggregators with VIC exposure should have load ready to absorb by 10:30 AEST. Evening demand will push prices back up across all regions from approximately 16:30 AEST; any load shifted into the morning trough will avoid both the morning SA spike and the afternoon recovery.