regional nsw — NSW1

The NSW1 spot price sits at $57.97/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 6,701 MW. Scanning the 24-hour price history, the region traded in a narrow $61–$77/MWh band through the morning peak before easing into the $57–$67/MWh range across the afternoon and evening — today's current price represents the softer end of that range. The intraday peak reached $8,098 MW around 18:10–18:25 AEST, with demand now unwinding toward a typical Saturday overnight profile.

The generation mix is dominated by black coal at 4,191 MW, with wind contributing 184 MW and solar 148 MW. Hydro, gas CCGT, and gas OCGT are all at zero output in the current trading interval. Renewables are contributing approximately 7.36% of generation, consistent with the carbon history data which shows renewable penetration has tracked between 7–15% across the day, with the strongest penetration occurring during the mid-morning solar window (peaking near 15% around 18:00–18:30 AEST). Carbon intensity sits at 0.8152 tCO2/MWh, broadly stable across the past several hours and consistent with a coal-heavy dispatch stack.

Predispatch forecasts point to a price step-down as demand retreats through the overnight period. The 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) is forecast at $57.06/MWh, dropping toward $37.89/MWh by 08:00 AEST and holding in the $37–$40/MWh range through to at least 17:00–17:30 AEST. Load window data identifies the 08:00–10:00 AEST window (22:00–00:00 UTC) as the lowest-cost period, with some intervals forecast as low as $11.30/MWh — rated "excellent" for flexible or deferrable loads.

Traders should note an active cluster of AEMO market notices flagging multiple early-morning intervals as "Prices Subject to Review" under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), covering intervals from approximately 05:15 to 06:10 AEST. The 05:50 AEST interval has since been confirmed unchanged. A separate settlements residue notice (MN 140645) confirms the negative residue constraint on the NSW–VIC directional interconnector (NRM_NSW1_VIC1) ceased operating at 15:00 AEST — removing a binding constraint that had been active since at least market notice 140570. Several price-review intervals from the 14:00–18:00 AEST window were also subsequently confirmed unchanged. No price corrections are currently in force, but the outstanding reviews covering the 05:25–06:10 AEST window remain active and could affect settlement for those intervals.