Regional Outlook — NSW1: Wednesday 1 April 2026
The NSW spot price sits at $191.08/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, representing a sharp evening escalation from the overnight trough where prices briefly touched sub-$1/MWh at 11:01 AEST and held in the $20–$40/MWh range through the early morning. The day's price profile follows a textbook demand curve: a sustained morning peak band of $130–$148/MWh from roughly 17:00–19:00 AEST, a midday plateau in the $100–$125/MWh range, and an accelerating evening ramp that pushed through $184/MWh at 06:20 AEST before the current $191.08/MWh print. The 24-hour average sits well above $100/MWh once morning and evening peaks are weighted in. Total demand at the latest interval is 8,043 MW, tracking below this morning's peak of approximately 9,047 MW recorded around 17:45 AEST.
The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by black coal at 5,612 MW, with hydro contributing 934 MW, solar at 122 MW, and wind at 48 MW. Gas — both CCGT and OCGT — is currently offline at 0 MW. Total renewable contribution sits at 16.44% of dispatch, with wind and solar combining for around 170 MW against total generation serving the 8,044 MW demand pool. Carbon intensity stands at 0.7354 tCO2/MWh, an improvement from the overnight high of 0.8611 tCO2/MWh recorded around 07:00 AEST when renewable penetration was under 3%, reflecting the progressive build of solar through the day before the current post-sunset contraction back toward coal-dominant dispatch.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval point to $174.46/MWh, down from the current $191.08/MWh, suggesting the evening peak is beginning to ease. Earlier predispatch runs issued around 13:00–13:30 AEST had flagged this interval at $138.42–$148/MWh, with the upward revision through the afternoon indicating demand came in firmer than anticipated. Load window analysis identifies the 08:00 AEST and 08:30 AEST intervals as the lowest-cost windows on the near-term horizon, with indicative prices in the $17–$55/MWh range as overnight demand falls away — a saving of over $270/MWh against current conditions for flexible loads able to shift to those windows.
A significant cluster of active AEMO market notices is in effect, with prices for today's intervals from 03:45 AEST through to 06:30 AEST all flagged as **subject to review** under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs). This covers more than two and a half hours of trading intervals spanning the morning ramp period. Two earlier intervals — 03:35 AEST and 05:15 AEST — have already been reviewed and confirmed unchanged. Traders and settlement teams should note that final prices for the flagged morning intervals remain subject to potential revision; positions taken against those intervals carry settlement uncertainty until AEMO issues confirmation notices. No affected regions are specified in the notices, indicating the review applies market-wide rather than being NSW-specific.