regional nsw — NSW1
The NSW spot price sits at $78.21/MWh at 06:35 AEST with total demand at 8,066 MW, placing the region firmly in morning peak territory. Tracing the last 24 hours, prices collapsed to single digits overnight — touching a low of $1.11/MWh around 08:15 AEST Tuesday — before recovering sharply through the pre-dawn ramp. The morning peak has so far reached $92.21/MWh at 18:20 AEST, with the current interval pulling back modestly from that intraday high. The 24-hour price profile follows a textbook demand curve: deep overnight suppression, a steep morning ramp from around 15:00 AEST, and sustained elevation through the current window.
The generation mix is heavily weighted toward black coal, which is contributing 5,426 MW — approximately 97% of visible local generation at the latest interval (06:30 AEST). Wind is adding 104 MW and solar 19 MW, with hydro, gas CCGT, and gas OCGT all sitting at zero output. Renewable penetration stands at just 2.22%, down sharply from an overnight high of around 10.7% when demand was lower and wind was contributing more proportionally. Carbon intensity is 0.8604 tCO₂/MWh, which has been trending upward through the morning peak as demand has grown and the renewable share has contracted. The intensity low across the past 24 hours was approximately 0.786 tCO₂/MWh in the early hours around 13:00–14:00 AEST.
Predispatch forecasts point to $84.79/MWh for the 07:00 AEST interval, consistent across the most recent forecast runs issued around 06:01 AEST. Earlier runs issued near midnight had forecast that same interval at $98.14/MWh, with the estimate moderating through a midday forecast of $89.02/MWh and converging further to $84.79/MWh by the latest predispatch. This downward forecast revision through the day suggests the dispatch outcome is tracking softer than initially anticipated. Load shift windows show opportunities from 08:00 AEST (around $42–$57/MWh) with deeper discounts in the 08:30 AEST window where some forecast intervals dip below $12/MWh, consistent with the overnight price behaviour observed at the same clock time.
A significant volume of active market notices is in effect this morning. AEMO has issued "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs) covering every trading interval from 03:40 AEST through to 06:30 AEST — more than 35 consecutive intervals currently under review. The sole confirmed resolution in this dataset is the 04:45 AEST interval, where AEMO determined manifestly incorrect inputs did not apply and prices remained unchanged. All other flagged intervals remain unresolved. Traders and settlement teams should treat NSW prices across this morning's pre-dawn and early morning window as provisional until AEMO completes its review and issues confirmations.