regional nsw — NSW1
The NSW spot price sits at $101/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 8,169 MW. Tracing the 24-hour price profile reveals a sharp overnight trough — intervals between 07:30 and 08:00 AEST saw prices collapse to near-zero and sub-$2/MWh levels as overnight demand fell below 5,200 MW — before the morning ramp pushed prices back through $100/MWh from 17:00 AEST onward. The morning peak registered $133/MWh around 08:55 AEST, and prices have held in the $98–$101/MWh band since 21:00 AEST, consistent with a firm demand shoulder ahead of the business day.
The generation mix is heavily concentrated in black coal, which is producing 5,738 MW — approximately 97% of in-region scheduled output at this interval. Wind is contributing 36.7 MW and solar 49.3 MW, together accounting for just 1.48% of renewable penetration. Hydro, gas CCGT, and gas OCGT are all at zero dispatch. Carbon intensity sits at 0.867 tCO2/MWh, the highest point in the 24-hour window; intensity was materially lower during daylight hours, reaching a daily low of around 0.713 tCO2/MWh between 10:30 and 11:00 AEST when solar lifted renewable penetration to just under 19%. The evening solar fade and flat wind output have driven the intensity back to its current elevated level.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval show a consensus $93.97/MWh across the most recent run — a step down from the current $101/MWh — suggesting the market is pricing in some demand easing as the early-morning ramp plateaus. Earlier predispatch runs through the overnight period had this same interval ranging from $77.30 to $84.79/MWh, with the revision upward reflecting stronger-than-anticipated demand. Load window analysis points to deep price lows returning from 08:00 AEST onward (09:00–09:30 AEST UTC equivalent), with forecast prices as low as -$3.20/MWh, consistent with the solar generation profile lifting once again through the morning.
AEMO has issued a significant volume of Manifestly Incorrect Inputs review notices covering intervals from 03:25 through to 07:15 AEST today. Of those, intervals at 04:45, 05:00, 05:50, and the 02:40 window have since been confirmed with prices unchanged. Notices for intervals from 05:25 through 07:15 AEST remain active and subject to review — traders should treat settled prices across the early-morning period as provisional until AEMO issues confirmation. No region-specific constraints are cited; all notices reference clause 3.9.2B of the National Electricity Rules.