Load Advisor

NSW1 sits at $101/MWh and QLD1 at $97/MWh right now, with both regions forecast to remain elevated through the early evening. VIC1 is the standout at just $11/MWh currently, with SA1 at $48/MWh — both interconnected regions already well into low-price territory as afternoon generation suppresses spot prices across the southern states.

The clearest load shifting opportunity across the NEM is the 09:00–10:00 AEST window (23:00–00:00 UTC), where predispatch prices will drop to near-zero or negative in NSW1 (as low as -$3.20/MWh), VIC1 (-$4.46/MWh), SA1 (-$4.00/MWh), and QLD1 (-$4.88/MWh). This represents savings of 96–101% against current spot levels and is the single best load absorption window across all four mainland regions simultaneously. The 08:30 AEST half-hour (22:30 UTC) is also strong, with NSW1 forecast at $1.79–$4.78/MWh, QLD1 at $0–$0.89/MWh, VIC1 at -$3.25/MWh, and SA1 at -$3.12/MWh — all excellent quality ratings. TAS1 is the exception: prices there are forecast to stay in the $96–$101/MWh band throughout the outlook period and do not participate in the mainland price collapse, so Tasmanian flexible loads should be deferred but the savings case is structurally weaker without the same low-price window emerging.

For peak avoidance, the current 06:30 AEST settlement period (20:30 UTC) confirms NSW1 at $101/MWh, QLD1 at $97/MWh, and TAS1 at $97/MWh — all elevated. These levels will persist into the early AEST evening as demand climbs toward the residential peak. Flexible loads in NSW and QLD should be curtailed or deferred from now through approximately 08:00 AEST, after which prices will collapse sharply. VIC1 and SA1 flexible loads can run now given prices are already low, though the deepest negative prices will arrive later in the 08:30–10:00 AEST window.

Concrete recommendation: schedule deferrable loads — industrial processes, thermal storage charging, EV fleet charging, water heating — to commence no earlier than 08:30 AEST and target peak consumption between 09:00 and 09:30 AEST across NSW, VIC, SA, and QLD. This window delivers negative or near-zero spot exposure NEM-wide. For any load that must run before then, VIC1 and SA1 are the only viable regions at current prices. TAS1 operators should engage with contract positions rather than spot to optimise today given no meaningful low-price window is forecast.