Regional Outlook — NSW1: Sunday 29 March 2026

The NSW spot price sits at $117.35/MWh with total demand at 7,962 MW, representing a sharp evening ramp that has pushed prices well above the $65–$83/MWh band that dominated the daytime trading session. The 24-hour price profile tells a clear story: prices collapsed into negative territory overnight (reaching as low as -$8.15/MWh between 11:00–11:30 AEST) before recovering through the morning peak to a sustained $72–$91/MWh range across business hours, then accelerating past $100/MWh after 08:45 AEST as the post-sunset demand surge took hold. The current interval represents the highest print of the day so far, with the 20:15 AEST interval having touched $118.30/MWh just prior.

Black coal dominates the generation mix at 5,677 MW, accounting for the overwhelming bulk of dispatch. Hydro is contributing 311 MW, wind 83 MW, and rooftop/utility solar a minimal 22 MW — reflecting the complete absence of solar generation at this evening hour. Gas CCGT and OCGT are both at zero, indicating coal and hydro are carrying the load without peaking plant support at present. Renewable penetration sits at just 6.84%, down sharply from a midday high of approximately 15.85% recorded at 20:30 AEST. Carbon intensity is 0.8198 tCO2/MWh, tracking at the heavier end of today's range; the cleanest window of the day occurred around 09:30–11:30 AEST when renewables briefly pushed intensity below 0.74 tCO2/MWh. Tonight's sustained coal dominance keeps the grid firmly carbon-heavy.

Predispatch forecasts point to a price pullback from current elevated levels, with the 07:00 AEST target interval forecast settling at $80.62–$83.46/MWh across the most recent forecast runs — down from the $87.49/MWh that earlier runs had flagged. The convergence of forecasts toward the low $80s suggests the market expects demand to ease as the evening peak passes, though prices are unlikely to retest the sub-$10/MWh levels seen during last night's overnight trough until solar returns after sunrise. Flexible load managers should note the load window data points to an excellent shift opportunity around 08:00–09:00 AEST (07:00–09:30 UTC), where forecast prices drop to near zero or slightly negative.

Traders should be aware of a significant cluster of active AEMO market notices: prices across intervals from 04:55 AEST through to 06:25 AEST are subject to review under Clause 3.9.2B of the NER for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs, with 20-plus active "Prices Subject to Review" notices still outstanding. One interval — 04:25 AEST — has already been confirmed unchanged via notice 138597. The volume and continuity of these review notices across the early-morning session is notable and may result in retrospective price adjustments affecting settlement for those intervals. Participants with exposure to those trading periods should hold off on finalising cost allocations until AEMO concludes its review.