Load Advisor

Near-zero and negative prices dominate the NSW and VIC predispatch outlook for today's morning period, with the single best window arriving at 08:30–09:00 AEST where NSW prices are forecast at $0.01/MWh and VIC at $0.01/MWh — savings of over $105/MWh and $132/MWh respectively against current spot. QLD is already tracking negative in predispatch from 08:30 AEST (–$2.71 to –$3.21/MWh), meaning flexible loads in Queensland will be effectively paid to consume. The 09:00 AEST half-hour is the single strongest slot NEM-wide for NSW and VIC, with prices touching –$2.50/MWh and –$2.44/MWh in some predispatch runs.

SA stands apart from the rest of the NEM. Prices currently sit at $132.65/MWh and predispatch shows they will remain elevated throughout the morning — ranging from $33/MWh to $68/MWh in the 08:00–09:00 AEST window — before finally dropping sharply toward $0.03–$9.36/MWh in the 09:00–09:30 AEST period as solar generation ramps. SA operators should target that 09:00–10:00 AEST window for any deferrable consumption, where the saving differential against current prices exceeds $90–$120/MWh. Tasmania presents no shifting opportunity today; prices are tracking $104–$107/MWh across all three forecast windows and will remain near that level through at least 09:00 AEST, so TAS flexible loads should remain on their normal schedule or defer to after-hours.

The clearest peak-risk period to avoid is the pre-dawn demand ramp currently playing out in NSW ($117/MWh), VIC ($119/MWh), and SA ($133/MWh). These will persist until rooftop and utility solar begins to suppress prices from approximately 08:00–08:30 AEST. QLD is the exception — prices are already low at $66/MWh and will go negative at the open of the 08:30 AEST window.

Concrete recommendation: schedule all flexible NEM loads — EV charging, hot water systems, HVAC pre-conditioning, battery charging, and industrial process loads — to commence no later than 08:30 AEST and run through to at least 10:00 AEST. NSW and VIC operators should treat the 08:30–09:30 AEST block as the optimal two-hour window, with near-zero or negative prices across the board. QLD operators can act immediately from 08:30 AEST. SA operators must wait until after 09:00 AEST when solar suppression takes hold. WA (SWIS) operates outside the NEM with stale data available; treat as a separate scheduling exercise.