Regional Outlook — NSW1: Saturday 28 March 2026

The NSW spot price sits at $65.51/MWh against total demand of 6,559 MW as of 06:25 AEST. That price is consistent with where the region has traded through the evening — the $65–$72/MWh band has dominated since around 03:00 AEST, a marked step-up from the deep negative pricing that persisted through the overnight trough, where dispatch prices fell as low as -$10.50/MWh between 11:00 and 12:30 AEST overnight. The 24-hour price arc is classically shaped: negatives through the solar-rich midday window, a hard ramp to the $72–$87/MWh range through the morning peak (17:00–19:00 AEST), then a gradual softening into the current pre-dawn period as demand pulls back from the 7,970 MW intraday high.

Black coal dominates the generation mix completely, producing 4,384 MW — roughly 93% of the metered output in the latest trading interval. Solar is contributing 135 MW and hydro 141 MW, with wind at just 35 MW. Gas (both CCGT and OCGT) is offline. Renewable penetration stands at only 6.64% and is falling — it peaked at 16.6% during the overnight low-demand window when coal's share contracted. Carbon intensity is 0.8216 tCO2/MWh, the highest reading in the 24-hour dataset, reflecting the near-total reliance on black coal with solar output effectively zero in the pre-dawn period. Sustainability managers should note that the carbon signal will improve once rooftop and utility solar ramps post-sunrise, but today being a Sunday with low demand, coal dispatch is unlikely to retreat meaningfully until the solar window is well established.

Predispatch forecasts are stable and tightly clustered around the $65–$67/MWh range for the 07:00 AEST trading period, with no material divergence across successive PASA runs. Load window modelling points to an excellent buying opportunity from 07:30 AEST onwards, with forecast prices dropping sharply to the $8–$11/MWh range as solar generation lifts demand net of renewables — an implied saving of over $66/MWh versus the current dispatch price. The window centred on 08:00 AEST shows forecast prices turning negative again (as low as -$10.50/MWh), consistent with the overnight pattern and strong solar penetration expected through the morning.

Traders should be aware of a substantial volume of active AEMO market notices: PRICES SUBJECT TO REVIEW notices are in force for 27 consecutive intervals spanning 05:00 through to 06:25 AEST today, with AEMO reviewing under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs). Two earlier intervals — 02:05 and 04:10 AEST — have been confirmed unchanged following review. The volume and continuity of these review notices is unusual and warrants close monitoring; any retrospective price revision across the flagged early-morning intervals could affect settlement exposure for participants active during the overnight negative price period.