Regional Outlook — NSW1: Friday 27 March 2026

The NSW spot price sits at $72.25/MWh against a total demand of 7,067 MW — elevated relative to the sub-$20/MWh prices that dominated the overnight trough between 07:15 and 14:30 AEST, where near-zero and negative prices were common as low demand met adequate supply. The last two hours have seen a sustained recovery into the $65–$72/MWh band as demand climbs toward the evening peak, a pattern consistent with a typical Saturday ramp. The 24-hour range has been wide — from -$9.69/MWh to $77.30/MWh — reflecting the volatility driven by demand cycling across this weekend profile.

The generation mix is heavily coal-dependent. Black coal is generating 4,157 MW, dominating the dispatch stack. Wind contributes 211 MW and solar 148 MW, together delivering just 7.93% renewable penetration at the current interval — a notable step down from the 24% renewable share recorded around 10:00–11:00 AEST when overnight wind was stronger and demand was at its daily low. Hydro, gas CCGT, and gas OCGT are all sitting at zero MW, indicating no peaking plant is active at this reading. Carbon intensity stands at 0.8102 tCO2/MWh, having risen steadily from a daily low near 0.665 tCO2/MWh during the overnight period as solar and wind output tailed off relative to coal-heavy dispatch. This is a high-carbon profile — sustainability managers should note the grid is near its dirtiest point of the day.

Predispatch forecasts point to a price easing toward $65.04/MWh at the 07:00 AEST interval, down from the current $72.25/MWh, with the trajectory stable across multiple forecast runs. Load window data shows an excellent opportunity opening from approximately 07:30–08:30 AEST, with forecast prices ranging from near zero to negative values — a strong signal for flexible load shifting or battery charging ahead of the morning demand build. Operators with demand flexibility should look to capture the sub-$15/MWh and negative price windows expected in the next two to three hours.

AEMO has issued a significant volume of active market notices under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), covering trading intervals from 01:35 through 06:25 AEST today. Several earlier intervals — including 02:45, 03:40, 04:15, and 04:40 — have been reviewed and confirmed unchanged. However, intervals from 04:45 through 06:25 remain under active review. Traders with positions in those windows should treat settlement prices as provisional; retrospective price changes in these intervals remain possible until AEMO issues confirmation notices.