Published 15 May 2026. 72 auction results across 6 interconnector-direction pairs.
The 2025 Q2 Inter-Regional Settlement Residue (IRSR) auction round covered 72 auction results across six interconnector directions, spanning contract quarters from 2025 Q3 through to 2028 Q2. Clearing prices varied substantially across interconnectors and directions, with the QNI (QLD1 direction) and VIC–NSW (VIC1 direction) recording the highest average clearing prices of the quarter — signalling that the market expects material price differentials between Queensland and New South Wales, and between Victoria and New South Wales, to persist well into the forward curve. The strong aggregate sell-through rates, which averaged above 80% across most interconnectors, reflect broad market appetite for inter-regional hedging, consistent with ongoing structural changes to the NEM's generation mix and transmission constraints.
Because this is the first quarter for which gridIQ has consolidated auction data across all six directions, no prior quarter comparisons are available for this report. Future editions will incorporate quarter-on-quarter trend analysis as the dataset matures.
Clearing prices for the northward flow from New South Wales into Queensland averaged $8,724/unit, ranging from $3,903 to $19,246 across the twelve contract quarters. The 90% sell-through rate — the highest recorded across all six directions this quarter — indicates strong demand for hedges against northbound flow residues. The wide price range across contract quarters suggests market participants hold differentiated views on how congestion conditions will evolve along the QNI corridor over the coming three years.
The southward QLD1 direction recorded the highest average clearing price of any interconnector direction this quarter at $25,874/unit, with a range of $19,044 to $32,148. Despite this elevated pricing, sell-through reached only 75% — the lowest of the QNI pair — suggesting that while the market prices in significant spread risk from Queensland into New South Wales, a portion of offered units was not taken up at prevailing prices. These levels point to strong market expectations that Queensland generation will continue to command a meaningful price premium over New South Wales in the forward period.
Clearing prices for the westward VIC1 direction on Heywood averaged $14,535/unit, ranging from $10,309 to $24,020, with an 81% sell-through rate. These figures indicate a solid market expectation that Victorian wholesale prices will frequently diverge from South Australian prices — a pattern associated with periods of high renewable output in South Australia coinciding with export constraints. The relatively elevated top-of-range clearing price warrants attention from South Australian market participants managing basis exposure.
The eastward SA1 direction on Heywood recorded the lowest average clearing price of any interconnector direction this quarter at $4,758/unit, within a narrow range of $4,003 to $5,550. The 82% sell-through rate is solid despite the modest pricing. The compressed price range and low absolute clearing level suggest the market views the risk of South Australian prices consistently exceeding Victorian prices as comparatively limited across the forward curve.
The northward VIC1 direction averaged $16,029/unit — the second-highest average clearing price this quarter — with a relatively tight range of $13,950 to $18,292. However, sell-through reached only 70%, the lowest of all six directions, indicating that despite elevated clearing prices, a notable portion of the offered capacity went unsold. This combination may reflect a market that is pricing in structural Victorian price suppression relative to New South Wales, but where some participants were unwilling to absorb units at prevailing levels across the full forward curve.
The southward NSW1 direction averaged $3,578/unit, with a range of $1,903 to $6,000 and an 84% sell-through rate. The low average clearing price — the second-lowest across all directions — is consistent with the market placing limited weight on scenarios where New South Wales prices frequently exceed Victorian prices on a sustained basis. The 84% sell-through nonetheless indicates reasonable demand for this directional hedge as an ancillary position within broader portfolio risk management.
Taken together, the 2025 Q2 IRSR auction results point to a market that anticipates the most pronounced inter-regional price divergence along the QNI corridor in the QLD1 (southward) direction and across VIC–NSW in the V
Data source: AEMO SRA Results (NEMWEB). Ingested weekly by gridIQ. Analysis generated by Watt AI (claude-sonnet-4-6). gridIQ does not participate in IRSR auctions and this report does not constitute financial advice.