Regional Outlook — VIC1 — Sunday 10 May 2026

The Victoria spot price sits at $123.90/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 5,905 MW — a level consistent with the Monday morning winter ramp that has been sustained above 5,800 MW since around 05:30 AEST. Today's trading has been decisively elevated: prices broke above $80/MWh at 16:00 AEST and have held predominantly in the $110–$128/MWh band through the morning peak, with an intraday high of $129.86/MWh at 23:15 AEST. This contrasts sharply with the overnight trough where prices fell to negative $2/MWh and sub-$10/MWh levels between 14:15 and 15:45 AEST — a spread of over $130/MWh across the diurnal cycle that underscores the difficulty of flat load contracting in this market today.

The generation mix at the most recent trading interval (06:00 AEST) shows brown coal at 1,641 MW, wind at 116 MW, and hydro at 81 MW. Solar, gas OCGT, and gas CCGT are all registering zero, consistent with overnight/early morning conditions and the 100% cloud cover currently sitting over the region at 9.1°C. Wind output is low relative to installed capacity, with weather data indicating near-zero wind potential. As a result, renewables are contributing just 10.74% of generation at the latest carbon interval — a significant step down from the 26–27% penetration recorded during the mid-morning solar window (around 00:30–00:45 AEST). Carbon intensity sits at 1.089 tCO2/MWh, up from the session low of 0.884 tCO2/MWh reached at 20:30 AEST, as brown coal carries the majority of the load with minimal renewable offset.

Predispatch forecasts are pointing to prices in the $122–$135/MWh range for the 07:00–07:30 AEST half-hours, with the most recent forecast run (06:01 AEST) placing the 07:00 AEST interval at $122.67/MWh and the 07:30 AEST interval at $123.90/MWh. Earlier forecast runs for the same intervals were tracking higher — up to $147/MWh in the 21:30–22:00 AEST runs — suggesting some softening in the predispatch outlook as the morning has progressed, though prices remain firmly in elevated territory. Load window analysis indicates relief is expected from 09:00 AEST onward, with forecast prices dipping into the $30–$80/MWh range as solar begins to contribute and overnight demand patterns establish. Today's weather outlook (max 17.4°C, 30% average cloud cover) suggests moderate solar potential will emerge later today, which should apply downward pressure on midday prices.

On market notices, the VIC1 contingency reclassifications for the Yallourn–Rowville 7 and 8 220 kV lines (notices 144056 through 144062) were issued over 6–7 May and subsequently cancelled — no constraint sets were invoked on interconnectors, so there is no direct binding impact on VIC1 transfer limits today. The NSW Wagga–Dinawan 330 kV augmentation commissioned