Regional Outlook — TAS1 — Sunday 10 May 2026

The spot price in Tasmania sits at **$103.04/MWh** as at 06:35 AEST this morning, with total demand at **1,229 MW**. Reviewing the 24-hour price history, the region traded in a narrow **$88.20–$96.24/MWh** band through the overnight trough, with demand bottoming around 890 MW in the early hours before climbing steadily through the morning peak. Prices broke above $100/MWh from approximately 17:40 AEST as demand surged toward the evening peak of 1,248 MW, and have held in the $96–$107 range since. The current price represents a material step up from the overnight floor, consistent with typical Monday morning demand recovery.

Tasmania's generation mix is running entirely on renewables: hydro is contributing **828 MW** and wind **14 MW**, with gas OCGT sitting at **0 MW**. Renewable penetration stands at **100%** and the grid's carbon intensity is **0 tCO2/MWh** — a position that has been sustained without interruption across every recorded interval in today's data. With 8°C conditions, full cloud cover, and effectively zero solar and wind potential in this morning's weather, hydro is carrying the entire local generation task. Demand-side heating load is registering a heating demand index of 10, consistent with the cooler autumn conditions across the state.

Predispatch forecasts for the next several half-hours point to prices in the **$101–$107/MWh** range through the 07:00–08:00 AEST window, with the most recent run (forecast time 06:01 AEST) pricing the 07:00 AEST interval at **$101.24/MWh**. Some earlier predispatch iterations had flagged isolated spikes to $110–$123/MWh for later intervals, but more recent runs have moderated those outliers back toward the $106–$108 range. Prices are expected to remain elevated relative to the overnight trough through the morning as demand consolidates around 1,200–1,250 MW before easing through midday.

The most directly relevant active market notice for Tasmania is the **cancellation of the T-GTSH_N-2 constraint set** (Market Notice 144045, effective 5 May), which had previously constrained flows on the Sheffield–George Town 220 kV lines and limited T-V-MNSP1 (Basslink) capacity. That constraint has reverted to non-credible, removing the binding export restriction that was in play earlier in the week. No active TAS-specific inter-regional or reserve notices are in force today; the Forecast LOR1 that was declared for TAS on 5 May (Notice 144025) was cancelled prior to that event occurring. Traders with Basslink exposure should note the interconnector is operating without the overhead N-2 constraint, which may affect the spread dynamics between TAS and VIC during today's morning peak.