Regional Outlook — SA1 — Sunday 10 May 2026

The spot price sits at $128.92/MWh at 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 1,421.68 MW. That's a notable step down from the morning peak, which pushed prices to $138–$179/MWh between 17:30 and 18:30 AEST during the workday demand ramp. The overnight low saw prices drop to the high $20s–low $30s range (UTC 01:00–04:00, or approximately 11:00–14:00 AEST yesterday), reflecting a classic SA mid-day profile. Two brief price spikes above $340/MWh occurred early in the price history window — at around 07:40 and 09:05 AEST yesterday — indicating short-lived dispatch pressure, likely tied to low wind output at that time, when the carbon history shows renewable penetration as low as 5–8%.

The current generation mix at 06:30 AEST comprises wind at 301.8 MW, gas CCGT at 287.91 MW, gas OCGT at 80.96 MW, and solar at 0 MW (consistent with pre-dawn conditions). Wind accounts for approximately 45% of total generation, with the combined gas fleet providing the remainder. This aligns with the latest carbon intensity reading of 0.2888 tCO2/MWh at 45% renewable penetration — a significant improvement from the overnight trough, where intensity peaked above 0.50 tCO2/MWh when wind penetration was below 8% in the early evening. The carbon trajectory across the day traced a clear arc: intensity fell from 0.47 tCO2/MWh at 17:00 AEST to a low around 0.18–0.19 tCO2/MWh between 05:00–05:30 AEST as wind output strengthened, before rising again to the current 0.29 tCO2/MWh as the morning demand build absorbs more gas-fired generation. Grid stress is elevated at 80.7 out of 100, with price stability scoring 66.4 — consistent with the intermittent dispatch volatility observed through the day.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 and 07:30 AEST half-hours (21:00–21:30 UTC) are pointing to $124–$125/MWh, with the most recent runs converging on that band after earlier forecasts as high as $245/MWh at the 13:00 UTC run and $158/MWh at the 11:00 UTC run — both of which have since revised sharply lower. This convergence suggests dispatchable capacity is expected to be adequate through the early morning. Load window analysis supports deferral to the 10:30–13:00 AEST window (00:30–03:00 UTC), where forecast prices range from $11 to $35/MWh across a wide spread of scenarios — the optimal band for flexible industrial load or battery charging. Solar potential for today is moderate at 16.3% average, with a max temperature forecast of 18°C and light winds (4.7 km/h currently), so wind output is unlikely to sustain the overnight levels seen today.

The one SA-specific market notice of direct relevance is the market intervention sequence from 5–6 May (Notices 144048, 144050, 144052), in which AEMO directed Origin