Regional Outlook — QLD1 — Sunday 10 May 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $86.73/MWh at 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 6,631 MW. Today's price profile tells a clear story: the market opened overnight in the low-to-mid $20s/MWh through the 10:00–12:00 AEST window (UTC 00:00–02:00), climbed through the $39–$50/MWh range across the morning demand build, then accelerated sharply into the business-day peak, touching $109.88/MWh at 19:35 AEST before settling back to current levels. The 24-hour average across the visible history sits in the high $60s/MWh, making the current price notably above that mid-range. Demand peaked at approximately 7,342 MW around 17:50–18:00 AEST and has since moderated as the early-evening load eases.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by black coal at 1,976.87 MW, hydro contributing 86.26 MW, and gas OCGT at just 0.19 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with overnight conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 4.18% — a figure that has been largely range-bound between 3.85% and 4.66% throughout daylight and post-sunset hours today, reflecting the absence of large-scale wind or rooftop solar contribution at this point in the dispatch day. The lowest carbon intensity recorded during the overnight period was 0.6895 tCO2/MWh at approximately 01:30 AEST, when hydro contribution was relatively higher and total demand was suppressed. The current intensity of 0.8432 tCO2/MWh reflects peak-period coal dispatch and is near the day's high, which reached 0.8461 tCO2/MWh earlier in the morning.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) half-hour are tightly clustered between $78.99/MWh and $91.57/MWh across the full run of submitted forecasts, with the most recent prints (from 20:01–20:31 UTC) pointing to $85.73/MWh. The 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) period is forecast in the $81.83–$95.82/MWh range, with later runs settling around $95.82/MWh — suggesting upward price pressure persists into the next trading interval. Load window optimisation data points to the 08:30–09:30 AEST window (UTC 22:30–23:00) as the best price relief period, with forecast averages around $39–$54/MWh, offering flexible load operators a potential saving of over $90/MWh against current spot. Weather conditions are mild: 15°C, 21% cloud cover, and minimal wind, yielding negligible heating or cooling demand and low solar potential overnight, consistent with typical May conditions in South East Queensland.

The only active market notice directly relevant to Queensland is Market Notice 144024, which confirms that from 5 May 2026 AEMO raised the dispatch cap on Very Fast Contingency FCAS in the QLD region from 200 MW to 250 MW during periods where QLD islanding is considered credible — a standing change with ongoing implications for frequency response costs. A prior contingency