Commodity Demand — SA1 — Sunday 10 May 2026

South Australia's spot price sits at $128.92/MWh with demand at 1,421.68 MW as of 06:35 AEST. That demand level sits well below today's intraday peak of 1,723.53 MW, reached around 19:50–19:55 AEST during the morning commercial ramp-up, where prices consistently tracked the $138–$145/MWh band. The relationship between demand and price across today's history is tight: as demand climbed from the overnight trough of around 989 MW (near 13:10 AEST) toward the 1,700 MW-plus morning peak, prices locked into the $138–$145/MWh range with minimal deviation, confirming that supply offer stack in SA has a hard step change in marginal cost at roughly the 1,600 MW demand level. Below that threshold, prices have been markedly more volatile and lower — swinging between $28/MWh and $121/MWh through the early-morning trough — reflecting the interplay of wind generation (currently 301.8 MW) and gas-fired dispatch cycling on and off to meet residual demand.

Current demand of 1,421.68 MW is on a rising trajectory, up from 1,355 MW at 06:00 AEST and accelerating through the past 35 minutes. This is the Monday morning ramp characteristic for SA: demand typically continues climbing toward the 1,550–1,700 MW range through the 07:00–09:30 AEST window as commercial and industrial load comes online. The generation mix — wind at 301.8 MW, gas CCGT at 287.91 MW, and gas OCGT at 80.96 MW, with solar at zero given the pre-dawn timing — means gas-fired plant is carrying the residual load. As demand rises through the next two hours, OCGT capacity will be drawn more heavily, applying upward pressure on the marginal price toward and likely above the $138/MWh level seen during this morning's peak.

Forecast prices for the 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) half-hour are converging on $124–$125/MWh across the most recent AEMO pre-dispatch runs, a step down from the $138/MWh that dominated the 19:00–20:30 AEST window. That moderation likely reflects expected wind output improvement as Monday morning wind potential remains low at 0.2 on current conditions, though the daily outlook shows average wind potential of 0.5 for today — still subdued. The 06:30–07:30 AEST window is therefore the primary price risk period for Monday: if demand surpasses 1,600 MW before sufficient gas capacity dispatches, brief excursions toward $150–$180/MWh are plausible, consistent with the $179.67/MWh spike seen at 17:30 AEST this morning and the $342–$349/MWh spikes observed in the 07:40–09:05 AEST UTC window overnight. Demand-side managers with flexibility should note that load windows from 09:30–12:00 AEST (00:00–02:30 UTC) are forecast at $11–$50/MWh — the most attractive curtailment opportunity of the day.