Commodity Demand — QLD1 — Sunday 10 May 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $86.73/MWh at 6,631 MW demand as of 06:35 AEST, well into the evening ramp that began around 05:00 AEST when demand crossed 6,000 MW and prices lifted from the mid-$60s/MWh range. The demand-price relationship across today's trading has been highly consistent: the overnight trough of approximately 4,225 MW at around 10:30 AEST (UTC+10: 00:30) corresponded with prices as low as $11.29/MWh, and every 500 MW increment of demand recovery through the morning has translated to a roughly $13–15/MWh step-up in price. The morning peak reached 7,342 MW at $102.22/MWh around 17:50 AEST, establishing today's demand ceiling, with prices holding in the $90–$104/MWh band across the 17:00–19:30 AEST period as demand sat above 7,100 MW.

Demand has since eased from that morning peak — a typical autumn pattern as commercial load winds down through the afternoon — before beginning the current evening re-ramp. At 6,631 MW and rising, demand is tracking toward the 6,800–7,000 MW range that the forecast window targets at $85.73–$91.57/MWh for the 06:00–07:30 AEST period. The most recent AEMO forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (UTC 21:00) have converged tightly around $81–$86/MWh after earlier runs from overnight produced estimates as high as $98/MWh, indicating that the market has priced in a slightly softer demand outcome than initially expected for the evening peak. With 21°C maximum forecast for today and minimal cooling or heating load (current temperature 15°C, heating demand index at 3), there is no temperature-driven demand amplifier in play.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST shows black coal at 1,977 MW, hydro at 86 MW, and OCGT contribution negligible at 0.19 MW — with solar at zero given the pre-dawn timestamp. Carbon intensity sits at 0.8432 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 4.18%, consistent with the pattern seen throughout today's daylight and evening hours where intensity has held in the 0.84–0.846 tCO2/MWh band since approximately 13:00 AEST as solar generation faded. The grid stress score of 80.7 reflects the elevated demand conditions of the evening ramp, and traders should note that load window forecasts point to prices dropping sharply to the $39–$55/MWh range from 08:30 AEST onward as overnight demand falls back below 5,000 MW — making any flexible load with a Monday morning start time a clear deferral candidate.