Carbon Forecast — Sunday 10 May 2026

NEM-wide carbon intensity sits across a wide band at 06:30 AEST, with Tasmania at 0.00 tCO2/MWh (100% renewable, driven entirely by hydro at 828 MW and 14 MW of wind), South Australia at 0.29 tCO2/MWh (45% renewable, 302 MW wind and 288 MW gas CCGT), NSW at 0.71 tCO2/MWh (19% renewable, dominated by 5,919 MW of black coal with 1,150 MW hydro and 168 MW wind providing the balance), Queensland at 0.84 tCO2/MWh (4% renewable, almost entirely black coal at 1,977 MW with negligible gas and hydro), and Victoria at 1.09 tCO2/MWh (11% renewable, with 1,648 MW of brown coal as the base, 116 MW wind, and 82 MW hydro). Solar output is currently zero across all regions, consistent with pre-dawn conditions.

The day's data shows SA has already recorded its lowest intensity window — 0.19 tCO2/MWh at around 03:00 AEST — driven by wind penetration pushing 65%. That window has passed, but SA's current 45% renewable share and trajectory through today's data suggest further competitive intensity levels are achievable as wind holds. NSW intensity troughed near 0.70 tCO2/MWh during the 10:00–12:30 AEST window as rooftop and utility solar pushed renewables above 20%; that solar contribution is now gone with the onset of evening, and intensity is drifting back toward the 0.71–0.74 tCO2/MWh range seen across this evening's intervals. Victoria's brown coal baseload keeps its floor intensity structurally high — the best it recorded today was 0.89 tCO2/MWh around 10:30 AEST when wind briefly lifted renewables to 27%. Queensland shows virtually no intraday variation, ranging only from 0.84 to 0.85 tCO2/MWh across the entire dataset, with renewable penetration unable to exceed 5% at any point.

For carbon-sensitive scheduling decisions through the remainder of today, SA is the clear low-intensity option at sub-0.30 tCO2/MWh, though the 06:30 AEST reading of 0.29 tCO2/MWh reflects wind winding back from the 0.19 tCO2/MWh trough recorded earlier this evening. NSW will see its next meaningful intensity reduction when solar ramps from approximately 07:30 AEST onwards, with the 0.70–0.71 tCO2/MWh window expected to recur between 10:00 and 13:00 AEST as solar peaks in autumn conditions. Tasmania remains at zero emissions intensity around the clock and is not constrained by time of day. VIC and QLD offer no material low-carbon windows today based on current dispatch conditions — both regions' renewable fleets are insufficient to materially shift their respective coal-dominated intensities within today's trading periods.