Prices firmed across the NEM overnight as the winter morning demand ramp took hold. Victoria led with a 24-hour average of $91/MWh (max $130/MWh) and a live read of $123.41/MWh at 5,964 MW demand by 06:35 AEST — a clear demand-price arc from overnight lows near 3,940 MW. South Australia printed the highest average at $108/MWh (max $180/MWh), with a spot read of $128.92/MWh this morning. Queensland and NSW were comparatively steady at averages of $80–$81/MWh. Watch Victoria and SA through the Sunday lunch shoulder — demand softening could pull prices back, but interconnectors remain near import limits.
Tasmania is the standout story. The region hit 100% renewable generation during the early evening, supplied almost entirely by hydro (~740–856 MW) with minimal wind contribution. Simultaneously, transmission constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ bound repeatedly across the evening with an extraordinary shadow price of $7,308,000/MWh — signalling severe intra-regional or interconnector flow limitation on a specific network element. Notably, TAS1 spot prices remained contained in a $96–$107/MWh range throughout, confirming the constraint was managed through dispatch redispatch rather than flowing through to the regional reference price. Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) was flowing at or near import limits as of 06:35 AEST. A constraint worth monitoring if conditions repeat tonight.
The West Australian wholesale electricity market was quiet by comparison. WA1 recorded a 24-hour average of $87/MWh with a very narrow price band — max of just $88/MWh — indicating stable, well-supplied conditions across the day with no notable volatility events to report.
LOR: No Lack of Reserve conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours per the latest ST PASA run. Gas hubs: Brisbane STTM firmed to $9.53/GJ