Regional Outlook — TAS1 — Saturday 9 May 2026

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $88.20/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 1,039.89 MW. Reviewing the past 24 hours, prices have been largely anchored in a tight band between $85.64/MWh and $96.24/MWh, with the most sustained elevation occurring through the late-morning and afternoon periods where $96.20–$96.24/MWh held for several consecutive hours. A brief dip to $68.40/MWh occurred around 20:35 AEST Saturday, the only material downside deviation across the window. The current price sits at the lower end of the recent range, suggesting some easing in dispatch pressure heading into the early Sunday hours.

Generation is running on hydro at 820.02 MW and wind at 41.39 MW, with gas OCGT at zero output. That puts the fuel mix at approximately 95% hydro and 5% wind, with renewables contributing 100% of current dispatch. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh — consistent across every recorded interval throughout the past 24 hours. Weather conditions are cold and still at 7.2°C with wind speeds of just 4.2 km/h and near-zero cloud cover, meaning solar potential is negligible at this hour and wind generation is running well below capacity. Looking ahead to today, conditions improve to a 17.4°C maximum with 22% average cloud cover, though wind potential remains very low (0.1 average), so hydro is expected to continue carrying the load through the day.

Predispatch forecasts point to a modest lift from the current level, with the 07:00 AEST half-hour forecast at $91.35/MWh — up from the prevailing $88.20/MWh — then stepping up to $96.22/MWh for the 07:30 AEST half-hour. This pattern aligns with a typical Sunday morning demand ramp as heating demand increases from the current 10.8 heating degree units. Forecast prices through the remainder of today settle predominantly at $88.20/MWh across the overnight and early morning periods (from around 11:00 AEST onwards), indicating the market expects conditions to ease back once the morning peak passes. No price spikes or LOR conditions are forecast in the predispatch window.

There are no active market notices directly affecting Tasmania's real-time operations today. The most recent TAS-specific notices relate to lightning-driven contingency reclassifications on the Sheffield–George Town 220 kV lines and several north-west 110 kV circuits (Burnie–Port Latta–Smithton, Norwood–Scottsdale, Ulverstone–Emu Bay corridors), all of which were cancelled by 5 May following clearance of lightning activity. The T-GTSH_N-2 constraint set, which affects the Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) interconnector capacity, was invoked and subsequently revoked during those events and is not currently active. Participants should note a planned MSATS production outage today from 20:00–00:00 AEST (CHG0110288) covering settlement system access, meter data processing and B2B transactions — no operational dispatch impact, but settlements and reporting functions will be unavailable during that window.