Regional Outlook — SA1 — Saturday 9 May 2026

The spot price in South Australia sits at $138/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 1,301 MW. This is elevated relative to the overnight trough — prices dipped to the high $20s/MWh in the early hours before climbing sharply through the morning peak, touching $175.97/MWh at 01:40 AEST and briefly reaching $156.67/MWh around 05:00 AEST. The day's price profile has been volatile but broadly sustained above $100/MWh since around 16:30 AEST, consistent with evening demand conditions and the absence of solar generation. Current weather is 12.3°C with 100% cloud cover and near-zero wind at the observation point (1.8 km/h), which aligns with the weak renewable output visible in the generation data.

The current generation mix is dominated by gas, with gas CCGT contributing 298 MW and gas OCGT a further 93 MW — totalling approximately 391 MW of thermal gas generation. Wind is producing just 41 MW and solar is at zero output, consistent with the post-sunset period. Renewable penetration sits at 9.54%, its lowest point of the day; the mix peaked at around 33% during the mid-afternoon window (16:00–16:30 AEST) when wind output was stronger. Carbon intensity is currently 0.4777 tCO2/MWh, up from a daily low of around 0.33 tCO2/MWh seen during the afternoon renewable peak. Today's outlook for solar remains limited — cloud cover is forecast at 59% and solar potential is rated at just 1.8 on a normalised scale — so a sustained daytime renewable lift similar to yesterday's afternoon period cannot be relied upon.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) have been revised sharply upward through the evening: the earliest forecasts from overnight sat around $84–$91/MWh, but the most recent predispatch run at 06:01 AEST prices that period at $129.25/MWh. The 07:30 AEST half-hour is forecast at $133.65/MWh on the latest run. Beyond that, load window modelling shows prices easing substantially from around 08:00 AEST onward, with most forward windows in the $50–$70/MWh range and some intervals as low as sub-$10/MWh through the overnight and early morning periods — consistent with low overnight demand and stronger wind across the NEM. The price uplift relative to earlier predispatch estimates suggests tighter-than-expected supply conditions in the current dispatch window.

The one SA-relevant recent market notice of note is the market intervention series from 6 May (notices 144048, 144050, 144052), in which AEMO directed Origin Energy's Quarantine PS Unit 5 to synchronise for voltage control purposes, subsequently cancelling that intervention by 13:00 AEST on 6 May. That event is resolved and carries no active operational consequence today. Separately, AEMO's planned MSATS maintenance window runs today from 10:00–14:00 AEST (notice CHG0110288), which will take settlement and metering systems offline — participants relying on MSATS B2B transactions, NMI Discovery, or CDR/CDP during that window should plan accordingly. No SA