Regional Outlook — QLD1 — Saturday 9 May 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $105.04/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, with total demand at 5,826 MW — a marked step down from today's intraday peak of $111.85/MWh reached at 07:30 AEST and the morning demand peak of approximately 7,215 MW around 08:05 AEST. The 24-hour price profile tells a clear story: prices collapsed into negative territory from roughly 09:15 AEST through to 15:00 AEST, bottoming at -$3.20/MWh during the solar generation window, before recovering sharply through the evening as demand climbed and solar output fell to zero. The current price of $105.04/MWh reflects the classic May evening demand ramp, sustained now for several hours above $95/MWh.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is heavily weighted to black coal at 2,218.56 MW, with hydro contributing 86.49 MW and gas OCGT a negligible 0.19 MW. Solar sits at zero, consistent with post-sunset conditions. Renewable penetration is 3.75% — a figure that has been largely flat since approximately 17:30 AEST when solar output ceased, down sharply from a midday peak near 28.6% observed earlier in the price history. Carbon intensity sits at 0.847 tCO2/MWh, in line with the elevated readings that have persisted throughout the evening as thermal plant carries the load. The contrast with the 0.628 tCO2/MWh recorded at 09:30 AEST — when renewable penetration peaked near 28.6% during the overnight-to-midday window — underscores the extent of the daily intensity swing.

The most recent predispatch forecast (issued at 06:01 AEST) prices the 07:00 AEST half-hour at $107.80/MWh, well above the earlier forward estimates of $77.73/MWh that dominated forecasts through the morning. That upward revision — from sub-$80/MWh forecasts that persisted from early morning through to around 19:00 AEST, then stepping to $92.51/MWh at 05:01 AEST and $96.77/MWh at 05:31 AEST — indicates sustained price pressure through the current interval. The 07:30 AEST target sits at $77.73/MWh per predispatch, suggesting market expectations of a price step-down as demand eases past the evening peak. Load window data supports near-zero to negative pricing returning from approximately 08:30 AEST (23:30 UTC) as overnight demand troughs and generation oversupply re-emerges.

Two market notices are relevant to Queensland operations today. AEMO issued a general notice (Market Notice 144024) effective 5 May 2026 increasing the Very Fast Contingency FCAS dispatch cap in the QLD region from 200 MW to 250 MW during periods where islanding is considered credible — a change with ongoing implications for FCAS market dynamics in the region. Additionally, the Directlink interconnector (N-Q-MNSP1) remains subject to a transfer limit restriction under constraint set N-MBTE_1 following an unplanned outage of the No. 3 Leg, first notified on 5 May (Market Notice