Regional Outlook — NSW1 — Saturday 9 May 2026

The NSW spot price sits at $118.53/MWh as of 06:35 AEST, with demand at 7,040 MW. That print is elevated relative to the overnight trough — prices dipped into negative territory between roughly 01:40 and 03:55 AEST (reaching as low as -$3.83/MWh at minimum demand around 4,800 MW) before climbing sharply through the morning peak, which hit $122.61/MWh at 00:45 AEST and sustained above $100/MWh for most of the day. The 24-hour price profile shows a classic winter weekday shape compressed into a Sunday: a pronounced evening ramp from ~$45/MWh at 15:30 AEST to the current $118/MWh band, driven by heating demand as temperatures sit at 11.5°C with a heating demand index of 6.5. Today's average across the full price history sits in the mid-$80s/MWh range, with the current interval sitting materially above that average.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by black coal at 5,897 MW, with hydro contributing 823 MW, wind at 70 MW, and solar at 21 MW. Gas — both CCGT and OCGT — is at 0 MW. Renewable penetration stands at 13.41%, down from a daily high of 18.82% recorded around 17:30–18:00 AEST during a period of stronger hydro and wind output. Carbon intensity is 0.762 tCO2/MWh, up from the overnight low of around 0.714 tCO2/MWh; the intensity has trended upward through the afternoon and evening as solar output dropped to near-zero and wind remained subdued. Weather outlook for today shows a max of 21.7°C, average solar potential of 16.4, and average wind potential of 3.3 — meaning solar should provide some midday relief but wind contribution will remain modest.

Pre-dispatch forecasts for the 21:00 AEST (07:00 UTC) interval have been revised sharply upward through the day, from $84.93/MWh in the early morning to $120/MWh in the most recent run issued at 06:01 AEST. The 21:30 AEST interval is forecast at $92.04/MWh in the latest run, suggesting the market expects a modest easing after the current elevated period. Load window data confirms that overnight pricing from 08:30–09:30 AEST (UTC 22:30–01:30) offers the lowest cost opportunity for flexible loads, with prices forecast in the $8–$11/MWh range — savings of up to $139/MWh against current rates. This aligns with the overnight low demand window observed in the price history.

The one active NSW-relevant network notice of note is the commissioning of the Wagga–Dinawan 330 kV lines and Dinawan 330 kV busbars (Market Notice 144069, issued 09 May at 18:04 AEST). This augmentation adds transmission capacity in the state's south-west and is relevant for flows on the N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector, which has been subject to constraint from the Armidale No. 3 transformer unplanned outage (Market Notice 144064, constraint set N