Commodity Demand — VIC1 — Saturday 9 May 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $108.99/MWh with demand at 4,552 MW as of 6:35 AEST, running well below the intraday peak of 6,290 MW reached around 19:05 AEST. Today's demand trajectory followed a textbook autumn weekday profile: a low of approximately 4,345 MW in the pre-dawn trough where prices bottomed out near $24/MWh, a sharp morning ramp from around 16:00 AEST that drove demand to the 6,100–6,290 MW range and locked prices into a sustained 90–96 $/MWh band, a midday elevation to $126.06/MWh at 22:00 AEST (the session high) as demand held above 5,500 MW, and a steady afternoon decline that has brought both demand and prices back to current levels. The price-to-demand relationship today is clearly segmented: sub-$50/MWh corresponds to the 4,300–4,550 MW overnight trough, the $90–$100/MWh range anchors the 5,700–6,300 MW bracket, and $110–$126/MWh printed only when demand crested above 5,400 MW during the 21:30–22:30 AEST window alongside tightening supply conditions.

The evening outlook is firming. The most recent AEMO price forecast for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) has been revised sharply upward to $112.90/MWh — up from $101.63/MWh thirty minutes earlier and from $80.50/MWh as recently as the early morning pre-dispatch run. The 07:30 AEST forecast sits at $117.06/MWh. This revision trajectory reflects the market pricing in renewed demand growth as the evening progresses: current demand of 4,552 MW is already climbing from the post-afternoon trough, and the history from overnight on Saturday shows demand rebounded above 5,300 MW by 07:00–07:30 AEST, which produced prices in the $87–$94/MWh range. The current forecast revision is steeper than that Saturday outcome, suggesting tighter supply conditions are anticipated for the approaching period.

Demand-side context from market notices is limited for Victoria directly today, though the Wagga–Dinawan 330 kV commissioning in NSW is worth noting for its potential to shift interconnector flows and alter import availability into Victoria. At 13.4°C with 100% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 4.6, there is no meaningful solar contribution — wind is generating only 159 MW against brown coal's 1,662 MW baseload — so demand response to any further temperature dip would fall entirely on dispatchable sources. Flexible load operators targeting off-peak pricing should note the load window data points to sub-$40/MWh opportunities from approximately 08:30–09:30 AEST, with prices forecast to drop as low as $8.95/MWh in the overnight trough around 10:00–12:00 AEST as Sunday overnight demand hits its minimum.