Commodity Demand — SA1 — Saturday 9 May 2026

South Australia sits at $138/MWh with demand at 1,301 MW as of 06:35 AEST. That price level is consistent with the evening ramp that began around 04:30 AEST (19:30 UTC), when demand climbed from a trough near 1,237 MW and prices stepped up from the $103–$122/MWh range into a sustained $138/MWh band. The overnight low of approximately 1,020 MW at 10:00 AEST corresponded with prices below $60/MWh, and the day's peak demand of around 1,696 MW at 18:40 AEST (08:40 UTC) coincided with prices touching $143–$145/MWh — illustrating a clear demand-price relationship across today's dispatch intervals. The current 1,301 MW reading sits in the lower half of the day's observed range, but prices remain elevated because the generation mix is heavily weighted toward gas, with CCGT at 298 MW and OCGT at 93 MW, wind contributing only 41 MW, solar at zero, and renewable penetration down to 9.54% — the lowest point of the day.

The forecast for the next two dispatch windows (07:00 and 07:30 AEST) points to prices of $129/MWh and $134/MWh respectively, both above current actuals, suggesting the market expects either a modest demand lift or reduced supply competition into that window. Earlier in the day, forecasts for these same windows were priced in the $88–$103/MWh range, meaning realised conditions have come in materially tighter than pre-day expectations. The step-up in forecast prices through the 20:00–20:30 UTC window aligns with the standard late-evening demand pattern as heating load consolidates — Adelaide's current temperature is 12.3°C with 100% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 5.7, removing any prospect of solar contribution and keeping wind output constrained by near-zero wind speed.

Today's demand trajectory on a Sunday follows a shallower profile than weekdays, but the winter heating signal is present. The day's peak around 1,670–1,700 MW occurred during the 18:00–19:00 AEST period and prices responded with spikes to $156/MWh at 19:00 and $175/MWh at 15:40 AEST. With demand now easing into the post-evening period, the price risk for the remainder of tonight sits in the $125–$135/MWh range per the most recent forecasts, with load windows from approximately 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) onwards pricing at $67–$84/MWh as overnight demand drops toward the 1,000–1,100 MW corridor seen in the small hours. The MSATS system outage scheduled for 10:00–14:00 AEST today is a settlement operations risk but carries no direct dispatch impact.