Carbon Forecast — Saturday 9 May 2026

Tasmania runs at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration — hydro (820 MW) and wind (41 MW) account for the entire dispatch stack at the 06:30 AEST interval. South Australia is the next lowest at 0.4777 tCO2/MWh on 9.5% renewables, with gas CCGT (298 MW) and OCGT (93 MW) carrying almost all of the load as wind sits at just 41 MW — a marked contrast to the 33% renewable peaks SA recorded in the 16:00–16:30 AEST window earlier today. New South Wales sits at 0.762 tCO2/MWh on 13.4% renewables, with black coal (5,897 MW) dominating and hydro (823 MW) providing the balance; wind and solar contribute only 91 MW combined. Victoria is the highest-intensity mainland region at 1.0884 tCO2/MWh on 10.8% renewables, with brown coal (1,662 MW) constituting almost the entire dispatch and gas offline. Queensland records 0.847 tCO2/MWh on just 3.75% renewables, driven by black coal (2,219 MW) and negligible contributions from hydro and OCGT.

The generation mix pattern across today's data reveals that intensity is heavily time-of-day dependent on the mainland. NSW, VIC, and QLD all exhibited their lowest intensities in the pre-dawn and early-morning hours (roughly 07:30–09:30 AEST) when overnight wind generation was contributing more, then tracked higher through the morning peak. SA's best windows came in the 15:00–17:00 AEST range, where wind penetration lifted to 31–33% and intensity dropped to 0.33–0.34 tCO2/MWh. VIC's brief improvement in the 08:00–11:30 AEST window — intensity falling to 0.86–0.92 tCO2/MWh with renewables reaching 29% — was the mainland's most notable carbon dip of the day, likely driven by a wind pulse that has since subsided.

With the 06:30 AEST interval now current and solar generation at zero across all regions, no meaningful solar contribution is expected until after approximately 08:00 AEST. For carbon-sensitive scheduling, Tasmania remains the obvious anchor for zero-emissions load at any hour. On the mainland, SA offers the best near-term green windows, with wind likely to lift intensity back below 0.40 tCO2/MWh if afternoon wind patterns from earlier today repeat — watch the 13:00–17:00 AEST window. NSW and VIC are unlikely to dip materially below current levels before the mid-morning solar ramp, and QLD's renewable penetration at sub-4% leaves little prospect of a meaningful intensity improvement through the day without a significant wind event that is not apparent in today's data.