Regional Outlook — VIC1 — Friday 8 May 2026

The Victoria spot price sits at $96.02/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 4,889 MW. That current price represents a sharp contrast to the overnight session, where prices spent several hours in negative or near-zero territory (touching as low as -$5.67/MWh between approximately 14:15–15:30 AEST overnight) before surging through the morning ramp. Prices have held broadly in the $88–$109/MWh band since approximately 17:00 AEST, with occasional spikes above $100/MWh through the evening. The 24-hour price profile reflects a classic autumn demand pattern: negligible prices during the overnight trough followed by sustained elevated pricing as heating demand builds through the day. With an overnight minimum temperature of 12.2°C, full cloud cover, and heating demand index at 5.8, today's conditions are consistent with that profile continuing.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by brown coal at 1,644 MW, with wind contributing 284 MW and hydro 235 MW. Solar is producing 0 MW — consistent with the 100% cloud cover and pre-dawn timing. Both gas CCGT and gas OCGT are at 0 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 24.01%, down markedly from the overnight high of approximately 62–64% when brown coal output was lower and wind was running harder. Carbon intensity is 0.927 tCO2/MWh, having climbed steadily through the day from a low of around 0.44 tCO2/MWh in the early hours as the generation mix shifted toward a higher brown coal share during peak demand periods. The daily outlook shows near-total cloud cover today (99% average) with negligible solar potential, so no midday solar relief is expected to ease intensity or prices.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) point to prices in the $100–$110/MWh range, with the most recent runs (issued from approximately 20:00–20:30 UTC) consolidating around $100–$105/MWh. Earlier forecasts from the afternoon session were tracking $105–$111/MWh, suggesting the market is pricing in a modest easing from afternoon peaks but no return to cheap overnight conditions for several hours yet. Load window data confirms the most attractive pricing windows emerge from approximately 08:30–09:30 AEST (22:30–23:30 UTC), where forecast prices drop to the $10–$40/MWh range, with the lowest windows around $8.95–$10.65/MWh expected between approximately 10:00–13:30 AEST.

On market notices, one historically relevant VIC1 contingency is visible in the notice log: the Yallourn–Rowville 7 and 8 220 kV lines were reclassified as credible contingency events on multiple occasions over 6–7 May due to lightning activity, with constraint set V-ROYP78_R_N-2 invoked and revoked across those events. The most recent cancellation notice confirms that classification has reverted to non-credible and no interconnector constraints remain on the left-hand side of active equations for this set. No active VIC1-specific market intervention or reserve notices are in force today. The MSATS 56.2 release outage scheduled for 10 May