Regional Outlook — TAS1 — Friday 8 May 2026

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $88.18/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, a figure that has been remarkably stable across the day — the price has locked in at or within a few cents of $88.18/MWh for the vast majority of intervals since around 15:50 AEST yesterday, following a brief overnight trough that dipped to $71.15/MWh at 14:15 AEST and an earlier evening peak that reached $96.26/MWh around 08:00–08:10 AEST. Total demand sits at 1,055 MW, well below the morning peak of approximately 1,254 MW recorded around 18:15–18:25 AEST, consistent with a quiet Saturday profile. The 24-hour price range of roughly $71–$96/MWh reflects a region running close to a single marginal price band for most of the day, with the $88.18/MWh level appearing to represent a binding floor/cap interaction on the Basslink interconnector (T-V-MNSP1).

Generation is currently split between hydro at 653 MW and wind at 75 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 0 MW. Renewables are contributing 100% of local Tasmania generation at a carbon intensity of 0 tCO2/MWh — a position that has been sustained without interruption across every recorded interval today. The generation mix reflects typical Tasmanian autumn conditions: hydro as the dominant dispatchable source, wind providing meaningful but modest support at around 10% of the dispatch stack, and gas held offline. With overnight temperatures sitting at 10.6°C and heating demand elevated, demand is tracking upward as the morning progresses, though Saturday weekend suppression keeps the load well clear of weekday peaks.

Predispatch forecasts for the next several hours point to prices holding in the $88–$92/MWh range through to at least 12:30 AEST tomorrow. The most notable step-up in the forecast is concentrated in the 17:30–19:00 AEST window (05:30–07:00 UTC), where multiple predispatch runs show prices nudging $91–$92/MWh — likely reflecting the Basslink export capacity tightening as Victorian evening demand rises and the interconnector transfer constraint (T-V-MNSP1) becomes more binding. Beyond that, the forecast returns to the $88.18/MWh anchor. There are no active market notices directly affecting Tasmania's generation or interconnector limits today; earlier TAS1-specific reclassification notices relating to lightning-driven N-2 contingencies on the Sheffield–George Town 220kV and several 110kV circuits were all cancelled by early May and no constraint sets remain invoked on the T-V-MNSP1 interconnector from those events.

The only notice with residual TAS1 relevance is the now-resolved Forecast LOR1 declared for 5 May — that condition has been cancelled and Tasmania's reserve position is clear for today. Traders and grid engineers should note that with wind potential forecast to remain low (0.3 currently, averaging 0.6 across today) and cloud cover at 27% with zero solar potential overnight, hydro is carrying the full dispatchable load. Any unexpected Basslink flow reversal or unit trip would land directly on hydro scheduling with no gas backup currently online. The MSATS system outage scheduled for 10 May (10:00–14:00