Regional Outlook — QLD1 — Friday 8 May 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $93.79/MWh at 06:30 AEST, demand at 6,037 MW — a notable step up from the $70–92/MWh range that characterised the prior evening's trading. Over the past 24 hours the price profile has been dramatic: deep negatives from roughly midnight through to 05:00 AEST (touching -$7.33/MWh overnight), a sharp morning ramp from 05:50 AEST, and sustained trading in the $70–106/MWh band through the business day and into tonight. The daytime peak hit $105.49/MWh at 06:20 AEST before settling back, and the evening period (03:15–04:25 UTC, approximately 13:15–14:25 AEST) saw multiple intervals above $100/MWh. The current price sits above the apparent 24-hour average, which is dragged down substantially by the extended overnight negative and near-zero floor pricing.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by black coal at 2,344.86 MW, with hydro contributing 86.11 MW and gas OCGT a negligible 0.19 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with overnight conditions. Reported renewable penetration sits at just 3.54% — the lowest point in the dataset — and carbon intensity is 0.8488 tCO2/MWh. This is the high end of today's observed intensity range; during the overnight period when demand fell to ~3,750–4,300 MW, renewable penetration reached 24–27% and intensity dipped to 0.64–0.65 tCO2/MWh, reflecting wind contribution displacing coal in the lower-demand trough. Today's weather shows clear skies ahead (0% cloud cover currently, average solar potential of 24.2 for the day), so rooftop and utility solar output will build through the morning and is expected to suppress midday prices, broadly repeating the pattern seen in today's price history.

Pre-dispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour point strongly to prices above $97/MWh, with the most recent pre-dispatch run (issued at 06:01 AEST) printing $97.51/MWh — a significant upward revision from earlier runs which sat in the $72–84/MWh range. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast at $77.73/MWh in the most recent run, suggesting the price elevation is expected to be short-lived and the market anticipates a pullback within the hour. Load window modelling confirms the overnight trough remains the optimal consumption window, with forecast prices in the $-5.50 to $-2.70/MWh range from approximately 08:30 AEST through to 15:00 AEST (UTC 22:30–05:00), and a morning transition toward positive territory from ~15:30 AEST onwards.

Two active AEMO market notices are relevant to Queensland. Notice 144068 confirms the cancellation at 03:24 AEST of the contingency reclassification affecting the Kamerunga–Barron Gorge 7184 and 7143 132 kV lines, which had been elevated to credible contingency status due to lightning activity from 02:20 AEST (Notice 144067). No constraint sets were invoked under either