NEM Overview: Friday 8 May 2026

NEM spot prices are sitting in the $88–$109/MWh range across the eastern states as of 06:30 AEST, with NSW leading at $109.41/MWh against total demand of 7,387 MW. The $21/MWh spread between NSW and Tasmania ($88.18/MWh) is the standout regional divergence this interval, partly explained by a substantial southward flow on QNI — NSW1-QLD1 is carrying 909 MW north-to-south into NSW, and VIC1-NSW1 is exporting 531 MW northward into NSW simultaneously, indicating NSW is drawing from both neighbours to cover its load. SA sits at $107/MWh with demand of just 1,299 MW; Victoria is receiving 493 MW via the V-SA interconnector while also exporting to NSW, and Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) shows zero flow this interval. QLD at $93.79/MWh is the cheapest mainland region, with black coal providing 2,345 MW of its roughly 6,037 MW load.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 39.5% per the current scoring interval, though the picture varies sharply by region. Tasmania is running at 100% renewable (727 MW from hydro and wind, demand ~1,055 MW). NSW renewables are modest at 17% — wind contributing 71 MW and solar 64 MW against 5,281 MW of black coal. QLD renewable penetration is 3.5%, with solar at zero in the pre-dawn interval and the state essentially fully coal-fired. VIC wind is generating 284 MW and hydro 235 MW, with 1,644 MW of brown coal making up the balance of its 4,889 MW load. SA's generation mix is 350 MW of gas (CCGT 208 MW, OCGT 81 MW) and 62 MW of wind, with the region relying on the Victorian interconnector for the remainder of its supply. Carbon intensity scores reflect this: TAS at 0 tCO2/MWh, SA at 0.44, NSW at 0.73, QLD at 0.85, VIC at 0.93 tCO2/MWh. Grid stress is elevated at 69.3 out of 100 and market conditions score 60.3, consistent with the active interconnector flows and network notices in play.

Two network matters are worth watching today. The Armidale No.3 330/132 kV transformer in NSW remains on unplanned outage (since 05:08 yesterday), with constraint set N-AR_TX invoked against the N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector — this is contributing to the constrained QNI northward export capacity and is the most operationally relevant active notice for traders with NSW-QLD exposure. Separately, the Directlink No.3 leg outage (active since 5 May, constraint N-MBTE_1) continues to restrict N-Q-MNSP1 flows. The QLD Kamerunga–Barron Gorge lightning reclassification issued overnight has since been cancelled (03:24 AEST), so no active constraint set remains from that event.

Today's outlook across the NEM is shaped by mild autumn temperatures — NSW is forecast to reach 19.8°C with clear skies, which will support a mid-morning solar ramp and some demand softening