Commodity Demand — VIC1 — Friday 8 May 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $96.02/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 4,889 MW — a relatively modest Saturday morning load level that is nonetheless sustaining prices firmly above $90/MWh. That price-to-demand relationship tells the key story of today: the market is not responding to raw demand volume alone. The overnight trough saw demand fall to around 4,650–4,750 MW through the 02:00–04:00 AEST window, yet prices across that period held in the high $80s to low $90s range, reflecting tight thermal supply stack positioning on a cool, overcast May day with zero solar output and minimal wind (284 MW). Brown coal is carrying 1,644 MW of baseload, hydro 235 MW, with gas CCGT and OCGT both offline — meaning any incremental demand is being priced at the marginal cost of whatever thermal capacity is next in merit order.

The day's price-demand arc has been notable for its inversion of normal Saturday patterns. Demand peaked at around 6,886 MW at 18:00 AEST, at which point prices were running at $81.40/MWh — actually lower than current levels despite demand being roughly 2,000 MW higher. Since that morning peak, demand has unwound steadily to current levels while prices have firmed, indicating that the supply stack is tightening at the margin as conditions shift into the early evening. The 15:00–16:00 AEST period saw spot prices push to $107–$109/MWh against demand of 4,900–5,000 MW, demonstrating how a lean supply configuration can produce price spikes at demand levels well below the day's peak.

Forward forecasts for the 07:00–07:30 AEST half-hours (21:00–21:30 UTC) are clustering in the $100–$110/MWh range across the most recent PASA runs, up from earlier estimates of $73–$86/MWh — a significant upward revision that tracks the realised afternoon pricing behaviour. Demand is expected to continue building modestly through the 07:00–08:00 AEST shoulder period as heating demand responds to a 12°C temperature and 100% cloud cover. With solar potential effectively zero for today (avg 0.1 across the daily outlook) and wind potential rated at just 1.7, the grid has no variable renewable buffer to ease marginal pricing pressure during demand ramps. Flexible load operators should note that forecast prices ease materially from around 08:00 AEST onward, with the 08:30–10:00 AEST window showing load window pricing in the $9–$30/MWh range, representing the deepest discount to current spot levels available today.