Commodity Demand — TAS1 — Friday 8 May 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $88.18/MWh with total demand at 1,055 MW as of 06:30 AEST. This is well below the overnight peak of around 1,254 MW reached near 18:15–18:30 AEST, and the price-demand relationship across today's data tells a clear story: Tasmania's dispatch curve has a sharp step around the 1,200 MW mark. Below that threshold, prices track in a tight $76–$89/MWh band, but when demand pushed through 1,200 MW in the 17:00–20:00 AEST window, spot prices briefly spiked to $91–$96/MWh before retreating. The floor price during the pre-dawn trough — demand dipping to ~960 MW around 12:00–12:30 AEST — settled at $71–$77/MWh, marking the softest pricing of the cycle.
Hydro is supplying 653 MW and wind 74.5 MW, with gas OCGT at zero output, accounting for roughly 727 MW of the 1,055 MW total demand — the balance reflects Basslink flows from Victoria. The generation mix is running 100% renewable at present. Price stability through the mid-morning and afternoon was notably rigid, with the RRP locked at exactly $88.24/MWh for a sustained six-hour stretch from approximately 23:00 AEST through 05:00 AEST, suggesting a single marginal unit was setting price without displacement across that entire period.
Demand is currently rising on the Saturday morning trajectory. The forecast profile points toward a daytime peak demand period in the 07:30–10:00 AEST window as residential and commercial loads build, with forecast prices consolidating around $88.18/MWh through that window. The more significant price sensitivity risk emerges in the 17:30–22:30 AEST window, where loadwindow forecasts indicate price prints between $89 and $92/MWh as demand climbs back toward the 1,200+ MW range. Several forward intervals show isolated forecasts reaching $92.36–$92.61/MWh, indicating the dispatch stack tightens materially when demand approaches that ceiling. Being a Saturday, the evening ramp will likely be shallower than a weekday equivalent, but with overnight temperatures at 10.6°C and a heating demand index of 7.4, space heating load will sustain demand through the evening period.
No Tasmania-specific market notices are active that would constrain supply or interconnector capacity today. The Basslink T-V-MNSP1 interconnector notices from early May (Sheffield–George Town 220kV reclassifications) have been cancelled, restoring normal import capability. Traders should watch the 07:30–08:30 AEST and 17:30–19:00 AEST windows for the highest price sensitivity, where modest demand variance around the 1,200 MW level has historically been sufficient to shift the marginal unit and push spot prices $3–$8/MWh above the current base.