Commodity Demand — NSW1 — Friday 8 May 2026

NSW spot sits at $109.41/MWh with demand at 7,387 MW as of 06:30 AEST — a market in clear evening ramp-up mode. Today's demand profile has been textbook for an autumn Saturday: the overnight trough reached as low as 5,448 MW around 13:45 AEST (02:45 UTC), when prices went negative, bottoming at -$8.29/MWh. The morning ramp began around 15:30 AEST, with prices lifting sharply from near-zero to $55.77/MWh as demand crossed 7,591 MW at 17:00 AEST. The correlation between demand and price has been tight throughout the day — every significant demand step-up has translated almost directly into a price step-up, with the market showing particular sensitivity above the 7,000 MW threshold where dispatchable capacity tightens.

The peak demand window today ran from approximately 17:30–19:30 AEST, with demand reaching 9,544 MW at 17:50 AEST and prices sustaining in the $77–$87/MWh band. That peak has now passed, and demand is climbing again from an inter-peak low of around 6,694 MW at 04:30 AEST (19:30 UTC) toward what looks like the secondary evening ramp — currently at 7,387 MW and rising. Prices have already responded, with a $123.06/MWh spike recorded at 06:20 AEST (21:20 UTC) and the current interval sitting at $109.41/MWh. The price forecasts for the next 30–60 minutes (target time 07:00–07:30 AEST / 21:00–21:30 UTC) are clustering in the $113–$124/MWh range, consistent with demand continuing to build into the 7,500–7,800 MW zone.

One network factor is worth flagging: the Armidale No.3 330/132 kV transformer has been on unplanned outage since 05:15 AEST, with constraint set N-AR_TX invoked and biting on the N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector. This reduces NSW's ability to import from Queensland, tightening the supply stack precisely during the evening ramp when that import capacity is most valuable. With gas CCGT and OCGT both showing zero dispatch in the current interval and black coal carrying 5,281 MW, hydro at 949 MW is the primary flexible resource responding to price signals. That combination — rising demand, constrained interconnector import capability, and limited fast-response thermal headroom — is what is sustaining prices above $100/MWh in the current interval despite demand still being well below today's peak.

The overnight outlook, by contrast, is considerably softer. Load window forecasts from 08:30 AEST onward (23:30 UTC) show prices dropping rapidly into the $1–$35/MWh range as demand retreats back toward the 5,500–6,000 MW trough band. Flexible demand that can shift load to the 09:00–13:00 AEST window tomorrow will find prices likely negative or near-zero, consistent with the pattern seen overnight tonight. The Saturday weekend profile, clear skies (0% cloud cover, solar potential resuming tomorrow), and the absence of significant industrial load create the conditions for another deep overnight price trough before the morning