Carbon Forecast — Friday 8 May 2026

Tasmania registers 0.00 tCO2/MWh at 06:30 AEST with 100% renewable output — hydro (653 MW) and wind (75 MW) accounting for the entire dispatch stack. South Australia sits at 0.44 tCO2/MWh on 17.7% renewables, with wind (62 MW) and gas CCGT (208 MW) and OCGT (81 MW) driving a night-time intensity that has risen steadily since solar dropped off. NSW is at 0.73 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 17.0% — black coal dominates at 5,281 MW, with hydro (949 MW) the only meaningful low-emissions contributor given wind (71 MW) and solar (65 MW) are negligible at this hour. Victoria is the highest-intensity mainland region at 0.927 tCO2/MWh: brown coal (1,644 MW) forms the bulk of dispatch while wind (284 MW) and hydro (235 MW) together hold renewables at 24.0%. Queensland sits at 0.849 tCO2/MWh with black coal (2,345 MW) producing nearly the entire load and renewables at just 3.5%.

The day's pattern is clearly visible in the data. All mainland regions show their lowest intensity in the pre-dawn to mid-morning window (approximately 07:00–11:00 AEST) when overnight demand eases and, in SA and VIC, overnight wind output was strongest. SA reached as low as 0.099 tCO2/MWh around 07:55 AEST on 79.9% renewables; VIC touched 0.438 tCO2/MWh at 10:05 AEST with 64% renewables. NSW's best reading of the day was 0.676 tCO2/MWh at 10:15 AEST on 23.2% renewables. QLD showed no comparable green window — intensity has held tightly between 0.838 and 0.849 tCO2/MWh since approximately 13:30 AEST as coal has maintained flat dispatch and solar generation remains negligible in the data.

The trajectory from here is upward for intensity across all mainland regions except possibly SA, where wind may provide some overnight relief. VIC's evening peak — reaching above 1.02 tCO2/MWh at 03:30 AEST with renewables below 17% — is the single worst interval in today's dataset and illustrates the brown coal baseload profile under low-wind evening conditions. NSW intensity has stabilised in the 0.73–0.74 tCO2/MWh range and is not expected to deteriorate materially overnight given hydro remains online.

For carbon-sensitive loads, the optimal scheduling window across the NEM today has already passed for most regions — the 07:00–11:00 AEST block delivered the lowest mainland intensities. The next credible low-intensity opportunity depends on overnight wind performance in SA and VIC; if wind recovers post-midnight as it did last night (SA fell to sub-0.10 tCO2/MWh), the 01:00–06:00 AEST window on Sunday 10 May would be the next candidate. Tasmania remains available at zero intensity continuously for any flexible load with interconnector access.