Regional Outlook — VIC1 — Thursday 7 May 2026

The Victoria spot price sits at $13.85/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, a fraction of the $50–$71/MWh range that prevailed during this morning's demand peak (07:00–09:30 AEST, with demand reaching 7,750 MW). Prices spent the bulk of the overnight and midday window at or below zero — touching -$0.10/MWh across numerous intervals between 02:00 and 18:00 AEST — before beginning a recovery as demand climbs from its afternoon low of around 4,280 MW back toward the evening ramp. Total demand currently sits at 5,486 MW and is rising steadily.

The generation mix at the latest interval (05:50 AEST) comprises wind at 1,767 MW, brown coal at 891 MW, gas (OCGT) at 119 MW, hydro at 17 MW, and solar at 0 MW (as expected post-sunset). Renewables are contributing 63.85% of generation, with carbon intensity at 0.4168 tCO2/MWh. This is a marked improvement from the early-morning position, where intensity ran above 0.70 tCO2/MWh when demand was elevated and wind output was comparatively lower. Wind is carrying the bulk of the generation task at this hour, consistent with current conditions: 18.8 km/h winds, 27% cloud cover, and a temperature of 13.2°C driving a modest heating demand signal.

Predispatch forecasts point to a meaningful price step-up for the 07:00–07:30 AEST window (21:00–21:30 UTC), with the most recent runs converging on $33–$36/MWh for 07:00 AEST and $33–$37/MWh for 07:30 AEST. Earlier in the day, forecasts for those same intervals were pricing well below $20/MWh, so the upward revision over the past three hours is notable. This is consistent with the standard Victorian evening demand ramp: demand will push toward 7,000–7,500 MW as temperatures drop and residential load builds, with solar absent and wind the primary variable. Weather data flags sharply reduced wind potential tomorrow (avg 8.4, declining toward 2.4 on Sunday and near zero Monday–Tuesday), which will be a key watch for the weekend.

On market notices, the active VIC1-relevant notice is the ongoing Armidale No.3 330/132 kV transformer unplanned outage in NSW (notice 144064, issued 05:55 AEST today), which has invoked constraint set N-AR_TX affecting the N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector. While this is a NSW network event, it constrains the QNI interconnector and can influence how energy flows settle across the southern states. Separately, the Yallourn–Rowville 7 and 8 220 kV lines in VIC1 were reclassified as credible contingency events on multiple occasions overnight due to lightning activity (notices 144056–144062); the most recent reclassification remains active. Grid stress is scored at 61.6/100, reflecting the transitional period between the low-price midday window and tonight's demand ramp. Traders should watch the 07:00–07:30 AEST predispatch closely as wind output into the evening will be the