Regional Outlook — SA1 — Thursday 7 May 2026

The South Australian spot price sits at $36.71/MWh at 06:25 AEST with total demand at 1,422.72 MW — a marked step down from the morning peak, which pushed prices consistently above $50/MWh between 17:00 and 19:00 AEST as demand climbed to a daily high near 1,940 MW. Overnight, SA delivered an extended run of near-zero and negative prices from roughly 12:15 AEST through to 07:30 AEST, with prices touching as low as -$0.10/MWh through the early hours as wind output ran well ahead of overnight load. Today's 24-hour price profile has been notably volatile: two brief spikes to $119–$120/MWh appeared around 22:15 and 01:10 AEST, alongside a $98/MWh print at 02:05 AEST, pointing to short-duration dispatch constraint events rather than sustained demand pressure. The intraday average sits in the low-to-mid $30s/MWh once overnight near-zero intervals are excluded.

The current generation mix is wind-dominated, with wind contributing 362.67 MW and gas CCGT supplying 104.37 MW. GAS_OCGT output is zero and solar has dropped to zero as expected at this hour, with 100% cloud cover and no solar potential. Wind represents the clear majority of online scheduled generation at this dispatch interval. Renewable penetration stands at 77.65% with a carbon intensity of 0.1095 tCO2/MWh as of 06:10 AEST. That figure has improved considerably through the day from a morning low-point of 0.2267 tCO2/MWh around 17:50–18:05 AEST — the period coinciding with peak demand and higher gas dispatch — before renewable share recovered strongly back through the 75–85% range during the afternoon and early evening. Today's overcast, cool conditions (14°C, 14.7 km/h winds) suppress solar entirely and keep heating demand modest, with wind potential rated at 5 out of 10.

Predispatch forecasts for the next 90 minutes are well-contained. The 07:00 AEST half-hour is forecast at approximately $20.87/MWh, the 07:30 AEST interval at around $20.94/MWh, and the 08:00 AEST interval in the $26–32/MWh range across the forecast ensemble. The trajectory through 08:30–09:30 AEST (06:30–07:00 UTC) shows a step up into the high $20s, consistent with the morning demand ramp as residential and commercial load builds. No sharp price escalation is indicated in the predispatch stack for the next two hours, suggesting an orderly morning ramp.

One active market notice directly relevant to SA's interconnector position today: AEMO issued Notice 144064 reporting an unplanned outage of the Armidale No.3 330/132 kV Transformer in NSW at 05:08 AEST this morning, invoking constraint set N-AR_TX at 05:15 AEST. This constraint binds the N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector on the left-hand side and may indirectly influence flows on the Queensland–NSW–SA transfer path, warranting close monitoring if SA draws on interstate imports