NEM Overview — Thursday 7 May 2026

Spot prices are running with a notable north-south spread this morning. Tasmania is the dearest region at $88.24/MWh against total demand of 1,149 MW, while Victoria sits at just $13.85/MWh despite carrying 5,486 MW of demand — the cheapest region on the NEM by a wide margin. NSW ($64.89/MWh, 8,346 MW) and Queensland ($60.75/MWh, 6,557 MW) are broadly aligned, with SA in the middle at $36.71/MWh on 1,423 MW. The VIC–NSW interconnector is exporting 926 MW northward and is binding at its export limit, directly explaining the price divergence between the two regions. Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is also binding at its -100 MW constraint, capping Tasmania's ability to draw on Victorian surplus and keeping Tasmanian prices elevated. The V-SA interconnector is pushing 359 MW westward and is at its export binding limit, providing a material portion of South Australia's supply.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 41.4% per the gridIQ score. Victoria is generating 1,767 MW from wind alone — the standout volume contributor across the grid — with brown coal (891 MW) and gas OCGT (119 MW) making up the remainder of its dispatch. NSW leans heavily on black coal (4,757 MW) with wind adding 475 MW and solar 156 MW, giving a local renewable share of just 11.7% and a carbon intensity of 0.777 tCO2/MWh. Queensland is similarly coal-dominant with 1,872 MW of black coal and minimal renewables, recording the highest regional intensity at 0.841 tCO2/MWh. SA's wind fleet (393 MW) and gas CCGT (102 MW) combine for a local renewable share of 79.3% and an intensity of 0.101 tCO2/MWh. Tasmania operates at 100% renewable (hydro 217 MW, wind 202 MW) with zero recorded carbon intensity. Grid stress is elevated at 61.6 on the gridIQ index, consistent with multiple binding interconnectors.

The active notice requiring the most attention today is the unplanned outage of the Armidale No. 3 330/132 kV transformer, which occurred at 05:08 AEST this morning and invoked constraint set N-AR_TX on the N-Q-MNSP1 (Directlink) interconnector. This is live and active. Directlink is already operating under a separate constraint (N-MBTE_1) stemming from the ongoing unplanned outage of its No. 3 leg, which has been active since 2 May. The combined effect is meaningful restriction on QNI capacity; traders with north–south spread exposure should note that NSW–QLD flows (-496 MW southbound on NSW1-QLD1) are operating well within limits for now, but the Armidale transformer outage narrows the contingency buffer. Weather across the eastern seaboard is cool with minimal heating demand relative to winter peaks, so demand is unlikely to surprise to the upside today. Wind in Victoria is forecast to ease, with average wind potential dropping to 8.4 today versus current output levels — watch for any upward VIC price movement into the afternoon as the wind resource softens and solar output remains negligible under 84% forecast cloud