Load Advisor — Thursday 7 May 2026
NEM-wide spot prices are sharply divergent this morning, with VIC1 sitting at just $13.85/MWh, SA1 at $36.71/MWh, and NSW1 and QLD1 elevated at $64.89/MWh and $60.75/MWh respectively. TAS1 is the most expensive interconnected region at $88.24/MWh, where predispatch shows prices are forecast to remain anchored near that level throughout the day — load shifting opportunities in Tasmania are limited and operators there should act on any available off-peak window now. WA1 (SWIS) sits at $117.35/MWh on stale data and is outside NEM dispatch, so the load-shifting case there is independent.
The strongest opportunity across the NEM concentrates in the 11:00 PM–4:30 AM AEST window (00:00–04:30 UTC), where predispatch prices in NSW1 and VIC1 will drop to near zero or negative — NSW1 forecast as low as −$25.50/MWh around 01:00–03:30 AEST and VIC1 holding at −$0.10 to −$2.28/MWh across the same interval. SA1 mirrors this with prices at or below zero from midnight through to 04:30 AEST. QLD1 will carry modest negative prices in the −$2 to −$10/MWh range from 09:00 PM through to 04:30 AEST, with deeper negatives around 01:00–03:30 AEST reaching −$20 to −$22/MWh. Flexible loads with overnight scheduling capability — cold storage, water heating, battery charging, industrial process loads — should be concentrated in this window to maximise savings. The deepest single-region saving in NSW1 reaches approximately $131/MWh versus current spot.
Prices will rise sharply across all mainland regions from approximately 04:30–05:00 AEST as the overnight trough ends. NSW1 is forecast to climb from near-zero back above $35/MWh by 08:30 AEST, SA1 will push past $27/MWh by 06:30 AEST, and QLD1 returns above $22/MWh at the same time. VIC1 will also recover to the $8–$19/MWh range by 06:30–07:00 AEST. Operators should avoid scheduling discretionary loads in the 06:30–09:00 AEST band across NSW1, QLD1, and SA1 — this represents the morning ramp risk period with the widest spread versus the overnight trough. The concrete recommendation: schedule all flexible NEM loads to run between 11:00 PM and 04:30 AEST tonight, with priority targeting NSW1 and QLD1 sites where the savings differential versus current prices exceeds $80/MWh.