Interconnector Watch: Thursday 7 May 2026

VIC1 sits at $8.95/MWh against NSW1's $74.67/MWh and SA1's $36.91/MWh — a spread that is driving near-maximum export flows on both corridors out of Victoria this interval. VIC-NSW1 (QNI's southern counterpart) carries 972 MW northward and is binding at its export limit of 972.15 MW, fully saturating the corridor. Heywood (V-SA) is simultaneously binding at its export limit of 373.49 MW into South Australia. Together these two binding constraints explain why the Victoria-to-NSW price arbitrage has not fully closed — the physics of both interconnectors are at their ceiling, leaving a $65.72/MWh spread intact between the two regions. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) sits at 0 MW with an effective export limit of zero, contributing nothing to the SA arbitrage alongside Heywood.

Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is exporting 99 MW from Tasmania into Victoria and is also binding at its limit. Tasmania at $88.24/MWh is the highest-priced mainland-connected region, and with Basslink saturated northward, Tasmanian generators cannot arbitrage further into the lower-priced Victorian market — the $79.29/MWh TAS-VIC spread persists as a direct result. QNI (NSW1-QLD1) carries 388 MW southward from Queensland into NSW and is not binding, with headroom to its import limit of 1,105 MW. NSW ($74.67/MWh) and QLD ($71.69/MWh) are closely priced, consistent with an unbound, partially utilised corridor. Directlink (N-Q-MNSP1) flows 17 MW southward into NSW and is not binding; however, it remains subject to the active constraint set N-MBTE_1, invoked following an unplanned outage of Directlink's No.3 leg on 5 May, which caps its capacity. A further active inter-regional transfer notice (N-AR_TX, invoked at 05:15 AEST this morning) restricts N-Q-MNSP1 following the unplanned outage of Armidale No.3 330/132 kV transformer at 05:08 AEST — traders should note this constraint remains active and limits northward transfer capability on that corridor.

The dominant price signal today is the Victoria surplus pushing against two simultaneously binding export corridors. With VIC-NSW1 and Heywood both at their export limits, any further increase in Victorian generation surplus cannot reach NSW or SA consumers and will continue to suppress Victorian prices relative to both neighbours. The QNI southward flow is partially offsetting NSW demand but leaves a $2.98/MWh QLD-NSW spread — tight enough that modest dispatch changes could shift the net flow direction. No losses data are available in this interval's feed, so gross-to-net flow adjustments cannot be quantified at this time. The Armidale transformer outage warrants close monitoring through the day; if AEMO tightens the N-AR_TX constraint equations, NEM-north transfer limits may reduce further, putting additional upward pressure on NSW prices.