Carbon Forecast — Thursday 7 May 2026

Queensland leads the NEM in carbon intensity at 0.84 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 4.4% of its mix — black coal at 1,885 MW accounts for virtually all generation, with hydro contributing a minor 86 MW and gas negligible. NSW sits at 0.78 tCO2/MWh on 11.9% renewables, with black coal dominating at 4,831 MW and wind contributing 500 MW. Victoria is at 0.42 tCO2/MWh with 63.8% renewables — wind at 1,778 MW is the dominant source, offset by 899 MW of brown coal and 120 MW of gas OCGT. South Australia is at 0.11 tCO2/MWh with 77.7% renewables, driven by 363 MW of wind with gas CCGT at 104 MW providing the remainder. Tasmania sits at 0.00 tCO2/MWh on 100% renewables — 223 MW of hydro and 201 MW of wind with no thermal generation online.

The NEM-wide spread between Tasmania's zero-intensity and Queensland's 0.84 tCO2/MWh is the defining feature of the grid right now. It is late evening (06:10 AEST), solar output is at zero across all regions, and the generation mix is anchored to baseload thermal in the northern states. The trajectory through today reflects this: with solar offline overnight, NSW and Queensland intensity will remain at or near current levels until solar ramps from approximately 07:00–08:00 AEST. SA's overnight wind performance has already driven intensity below 0.11 tCO2/MWh through most of the data series, and that pattern is expected to hold into the morning.

The lowest-intensity windows for carbon-sensitive loads are available now and through the early morning in SA and TAS, where wind and hydro respectively maintain consistent low-emission output independent of the solar cycle. SA's intensity has tracked between 0.07 and 0.12 tCO2/MWh for most of the past several hours, and that range is likely to persist. For NSW and Victoria, the next meaningful green window opens once solar generation ramps post-07:00 AEST — the data shows Victoria's wind has already pushed intensity as low as 0.42 tCO2/MWh overnight, with daytime solar addition expected to reduce that further. Queensland offers no near-term low-intensity window; renewable penetration has sat at 4–5% for the past 12 hours with no solar until daybreak and minimal wind contribution to the mix.

Carbon-sensitive scheduling decisions should prioritise SA and TAS interconnected loads now, target VIC from mid-morning as wind holds and solar adds, and treat QLD as a high-intensity region for the full day given the structural dominance of coal in that dispatch stack.