Regional Outlook — VIC1 — Wednesday 6 May 2026
The Victorian spot price sits at $15.11/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 5,884 MW and climbing as the morning ramp progresses. This is a significant step up from the near-zero and negative prices that dominated the overnight period — prices traded at or below $0/MWh for extended stretches between roughly 23:30 and 17:30 AEST, reflecting surplus conditions during low-demand hours. The current generation mix shows brown coal contributing 1,422 MW, wind 1,249 MW, gas OCGT 110 MW, and hydro 34 MW, with solar at zero given pre-dawn conditions and 96% cloud cover forecast for today. Renewables are contributing 45.6% of the generation mix at the latest interval.
Carbon intensity sits at 0.6418 tCO2/MWh as of the most recent reading, having risen from a daytime low of around 0.46 tCO2/MWh earlier in the day as wind output softens and the evening demand ramp draws on a heavier thermal mix. Today's cloud cover (96% average) eliminates meaningful solar contribution, making wind output the key variable for the carbon trajectory through the day. Wind potential is rated at 7.4 on today's outlook, which is relatively supportive compared to later in the week when wind drops sharply from Saturday onward.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) are clustering in the $33–$44/MWh range across the most recent runs, with the latest forecast at $34.75/MWh — a clear step up from current levels as the morning peak demand continues to build. Demand is tracking toward 6,100–6,500 MW based on the morning trajectory, consistent with typical May weekday conditions. The 08:00 AEST (22:00 UTC) predispatch shows one forecast at $15.11/MWh, suggesting softening again as the demand peak passes mid-morning, though that single data point warrants caution given the spread in earlier runs.
On market notices, the most operationally relevant VIC1 item this morning is the reclassification and subsequent cancellation of the Yallourn–Rowville 7 and 8 220 kV lines as a credible contingency event (notices 144056 and 144057). The lines were reclassified due to lightning activity at 04:38 AEST and the reclassification was cancelled at 05:39 AEST once the lightning threat cleared — no interconnector flows were on the left-hand side of the invoked constraint set, so the direct market impact appears limited. The weather outlook confirms cool, overcast conditions through to at least Friday (max 13.1°C today), sustaining solid heating demand and supporting afternoon spot prices in the $33–$45/MWh range through the coming days.