Regional Outlook — TAS1 — Wednesday 6 May 2026

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $107.47/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,181.57 MW. That represents a clear evening ramp from the overnight trough, which bottomed around $75/MWh during the off-peak window between 16:00–17:30 AEST. The 24-hour session has been characterised by two distinct price bands: a firm $88–$96/MWh base during daylight hours, a morning peak reaching $117.31/MWh at 17:45 AEST, and the current re-escalation toward that upper band as evening demand builds. The single overnight spike to $130.43/MWh at 10:45 AEST stands as the session high and appears to be an isolated dispatch event rather than a sustained pressure signal.

Generation is entirely renewable at the time of this briefing. Hydro is contributing 380.32 MW and wind 178.82 MW, with the gas OCGT at zero output. Renewable penetration sits at 100% and carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh — a position that has been sustained continuously across the full price history dataset. Weather conditions are adding modest heating demand (12.8 kW equivalent index) at a current temperature of 5.2°C, with today's forecast maxing at 10.6°C under 83% average cloud cover. Wind potential is rated low today (avg 2.8), which places the dispatch weight squarely on hydro dispatch as demand continues to rise through the morning peak.

Predispatch forecasts point to a significant de-escalation. The 07:00 AEST target (21:00 UTC) is forecast at $88.24–$88.26/MWh across all recent predispatch runs — a drop of roughly $19/MWh from the current dispatch price. The 07:30 AEST interval (21:30 UTC) shows more dispersion in earlier forecasts, with runs from 13:00–18:30 AEST ranging $98–$156/MWh, but the three most recent runs (19:00–20:00 AEST) have converged firmly back to the $88/MWh range. Load window signals from the forward schedule flag the 07:00–07:30 AEST period as a "good" load opportunity at $88.16–$88.26/MWh, with savings of ~$67/MWh against the current price. The overnight and early-morning windows through to 16:00 AEST (02:00 UTC Thursday) are uniformly forecast in the $85–$92/MWh band, with no indication of sustained high-price periods.

No market notices are currently active that directly affect TAS1 dispatch or interconnector flows. The most recent TAS1-specific notices relate to lightning-driven contingency reclassifications on the Sheffield–George Town 220kV and several 110kV lines, all of which were cancelled by 5 May. Notably, the T-GTSH_N-2 constraint set — which sits on the left-hand side of the T-V-MNSP1 Basslink interconnector — was invoked and revoked multiple times across 3–5 May during that lightning activity; no such constraint is currently active. The MSATS outage scheduled for 10 May (10:00–14:00 AEST) is the only forward-