Regional Outlook — QLD1 — Wednesday 6 May 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at **$177.81/MWh** as of 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough of around $40–$55/MWh recorded through the early hours. The 24-hour price profile shows a textbook autumn demand curve: prices held in the $50–$70/MWh range from midnight through to around 15:00 AEST, climbed through the $80–$120/MWh band across the afternoon, then accelerated past $140/MWh from approximately 06:20 AEST as the evening demand peak took hold. Total demand sits at **6,494 MW**, well below the daily peak of around 7,800 MW recorded at 17:30–18:00 AEST, which reflects the post-peak demand roll-off now underway.

The generation mix at the most recent interval (06:20 AEST) is dominated by **black coal at 1,836 MW**, with **hydro at 87 MW** and **gas OCGT at less than 1 MW**. Solar output is zero, consistent with post-sunset conditions. This mix yields a carbon intensity of **0.84 tCO2/MWh** with renewable penetration at just **4.5%** — the daily low. The carbon history shows that intensity was materially lower earlier in the day when wind and other sources lifted renewables to a peak of around 24% and intensity dipped to 0.67 tCO2/MWh around 08:55–09:00 AEST; that window has now fully closed. Today's outlook (77% average cloud cover, near-zero solar potential) indicates solar will contribute modestly at best through daylight hours, with average solar potential rated 1.8 for the day.

Predispatch forecasts point to a meaningful price retreat from current elevated levels. The 06:01 AEST predispatch run targets **$105.95/MWh** for the 07:00 AEST trading interval, and **$92.51/MWh** for 07:30 AEST — both significantly below the current $177.81/MWh. Earlier in the day, predispatch was consistently calling the 07:00 AEST period in the $117–$124/MWh range before the most recent run revised that lower, suggesting dispatched supply is coming in ahead of expectations as the peak eases. Flexible load operators should note that load window forecasts identify excellent cost opportunities from 09:00 AEST onward, with modelled prices in the $5–$40/MWh range through the early morning hours (09:00–10:30 AEST) and spot-negative prices anticipated in the 02:30–05:00 AEST window overnight.

Two active market notices carry relevance for Queensland interconnector flows. Notice 144053 confirms the Townsville South No. 2 132 kV bus trip earlier today (at 12:39 AEST) was classified as a non-credible contingency event — no load shedding occurred and AEMO considers recurrence unlikely. Notice 144055 confirmed cancellation of a lightning-related N-2 contingency reclassification on the Armidale–Dumaresq and Armidale–Sapphire 330 kV lines in NSW, which had constrained the **NSW1–QLD1** and **N-Q-MNSP1** interconn