Regional Outlook — NSW1 — Wednesday 6 May 2026

The NSW spot price sits at $82.08/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 7,917 MW, well off the evening peak of $162.25/MWh struck at 08:05 AEST and the morning demand peak of 9,163 MW seen around 18:45 AEST. The 24-hour price trajectory shows a classic autumn weekday shape: overnight rates settled into the low-to-mid $40–$67/MWh range, the morning ramp pushed prices above $100/MWh between 17:30 and 19:55 AEST, and the market has since eased back as demand falls away. The current $82.08/MWh level reflects a transitional zone between the retreating evening peak and overnight softening.

The generation mix is dominated by black coal at 5,119 MW, accounting for roughly 88% of metered output at the last dispatch interval (06:20 AEST). Wind contributes 483 MW and solar 158 MW, together producing the 11.12% renewable penetration recorded in the latest carbon intensity snapshot. Hydro, gas CCGT, and gas OCGT are all at zero MW. Carbon intensity sits at 0.7821 tCO₂/MWh, slightly elevated compared to earlier in the evening when wind was contributing a larger share relative to total demand. The overnight low of 0.7572 tCO₂/MWh (around 07:25 AEST) coincided with the lowest demand period; intensity climbed through the morning peak as coal carried the bulk of the load. Today's weather supports modest renewable output — cloud cover is near-zero, temperatures are mild at 11.8°C, and wind speeds are light at 11 km/h, with the daily outlook pointing to average solar potential of 18.3 and wind potential of 16.8.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST trading period are converging around $70–$82/MWh across the most recent runs, with the latest (20:01 UTC) pointing to $70.20/MWh — consistent with further softening as demand drops through the overnight trough. Load window data reinforces this: forecast prices from 09:30 AEST onward are widely negative (ranging from -$1 to -$11.27/MWh) through the 09:30–10:30 AEST window, reflecting anticipated surplus conditions as overnight coal baseload persists against low early-morning demand. This is the optimal window for flexible load scheduling.

On market notices, the most directly relevant to NSW today is the unplanned outage of Directlink Leg 3 (N-Q-MNSP1 constraint set N-MBTE_1, active since 02:30 AEST on 5 May), which is constraining the NSW–QLD interconnector and limiting northward transfer capacity. A lightning-driven reclassification of the Armidale–Dumaresq and Armidale–Sapphire WF 330 kV lines (constraint set N-ARDM_ARSR_1PH_N-2, affecting NSW1–QLD1 and N-Q-MNSP1) was invoked and subsequently cancelled during yesterday's trading day. Both interconnector constraints merit monitoring given NSW's current reliance on coal-heavy baseload and limited gas peaking headroom. The MSATS system outage scheduled for