NEM Overview: Wednesday 6 May 2026

Queensland is the standout at 6:30 AEST this morning, with spot at $177.81/MWh against demand of 6,494 MW — the highest price across the NEM. The state's generation mix is dominated by black coal at 1,836 MW with negligible wind and zero solar at this hour, and 100% cloud cover is suppressing any wind resource. NSW sits at $82.08/MWh on 7,918 MW demand, supplied predominantly by black coal (5,119 MW) with wind contributing 483 MW and rooftop solar a modest 158 MW. The QNI interconnector is carrying 425 MW north into Queensland, well within limits, while Directlink remains on reduced capacity following the unplanned outage of its No. 3 leg — a constraint that has been active since 5 May and continues to limit the N-Q-MNSP1 flow, which is binding at its 42 MW export limit.

Victoria is the cheapest region at $15.11/MWh with 5,884 MW demand, where wind is generating 1,249 MW against total demand — a significant contributor — alongside 1,422 MW of brown coal and 110 MW of gas OCGT. The VIC1–NSW1 interconnector is exporting 922 MW northward and is binding at its export limit, reflecting the price differential. An overnight lightning event near Yallourn prompted reclassification of the Yallourn–Rowville 7 and 8 220 kV lines as a credible contingency, though that classification was cancelled at 05:39 AEST after lightning activity cleared; no constraints remain active on that corridor. South Australia is trading at $44.02/MWh with wind supplying 592 MW against demand of 1,412 MW — a renewable penetration of 84% — with CCGT at 116 MW providing the balance and V-SA exporting 155 MW into Victoria. Yesterday's AEMO direction to Origin Energy's Quarantine PS Unit 5 for voltage control was cancelled at 13:00 AEST on 6 May; SA's voltage support situation has since normalised.

Tasmania is at $107.47/MWh on 1,182 MW demand, with hydro (380 MW) and wind (179 MW) covering the load — 100% renewable penetration — though Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is carrying zero flow at present, indicating Tasmania is self-sufficient rather than exporting. The elevated price relative to Victoria, despite the clean local supply, reflects the island's isolated operating position this interval. NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 42.5% per the current gridIQ score, with the carbon intensity score at 35.3 and grid stress elevated at 70.9 — the latter consistent with the binding VIC1–NSW1 interconnector and constrained Directlink.

The outlook for today centres on the morning demand ramp across all mainland regions. With QLD carrying the highest price and limited wind resource forecast (avg wind potential 3.7 today), upward price pressure in that region is likely until solar generation builds through mid-morning. Victoria's near-overcast conditions (96% cloud cover forecast, avg solar potential near zero) will keep solar contribution minimal all day, but the strong wind resource (avg 7.4) should sustain VIC prices at the lower end. Traders should note the MSATS planned outage on 10 May (10:00–