Interconnector Watch — Wednesday 6 May 2026

The dominant story across the NEM right now is the VIC-NSW interconnector running at its export limit. VIC1-NSW1 (Heywood's northern counterpart, the VIC-NSW link) is flowing 922 MW northbound from Victoria into NSW and is binding at its 922 MW export limit — meaning the constraint is actively preventing additional Victorian supply from reaching NSW. This is directly driving the $66.97/MWh price spread between VIC1 at $15.11/MWh and NSW1 at $82.08/MWh; Victorian generators cannot arbitrage that gap any further. QNI (NSW1-QLD1) is flowing 425 MW northbound from NSW into Queensland, operating well within its 425 MW export limit and not binding, yet Queensland still sits at $177.81/MWh — a $95.73/MWh premium over NSW. That spread reflects Queensland's own supply tightness rather than a constrained interconnector, and there is headroom on the import side (–1,190 MW available) should flows reverse.

On the Directlink (N-Q-MNSP1) between NSW and Queensland, the link is flowing at its export limit of 42.44 MW northbound into Queensland and is binding. Critically, one of Directlink's three legs remains on an unplanned outage (Market Notice 144047, active since 5 May), which has reduced the interconnector's transfer capability and contributed to the constrained northbound capacity. This outage-driven constraint set (N-MBTE_1) remains active. The combination of a binding Directlink at reduced capacity and a non-binding but flowing QNI at 425 MW northbound means all available NSW-to-Queensland transfer capacity is effectively being utilised, yet it is insufficient to close the large QLD-NSW price differential.

Heywood (V-SA) is carrying 155 MW westbound from Victoria into South Australia, operating at roughly 46% of its 334 MW import capacity into SA — not binding and with substantial headroom. SA sits at $44.02/MWh against Victoria's $15.11/MWh, a $28.91/MWh spread that would ordinarily incentivise greater westbound flow, though thermal and network conditions are keeping utilisation moderate. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is at zero flow and not binding, contributing nothing to the VIC-SA exchange at this interval. Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is also at zero flow; Tasmania at $107.47/MWh sits well above Victoria's $15.11/MWh, and with an export limit of 125 MW available southbound (Victoria to Tasmania), the absence of northbound flow from Tasmania to Victoria is notable — the interconnector is effectively idle, leaving Tasmanian consumers exposed to elevated local prices without import relief from the mainland.

The key risk to watch today is the ongoing Directlink leg outage keeping N-Q-MNSP1 capacity reduced heading into the afternoon demand ramp, and the binding VIC-NSW link which will continue to sustain the VIC-NSW price divergence unless Victorian generation falls or NSW demand moderates. The earlier lightning-related reclassification of the Yallourn–Rowville 220 kV lines as a credible contingency event has since been cancelled (05:39 AEST), so that constraint set (V-ROYP78_R_N-2) is revoked and no longer restricting Victorian dispatch.