Commodity Demand — VIC1 — Wednesday 6 May 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $15.11/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 5,884 MW and climbing — up from a trough of roughly 4,257 MW in the mid-afternoon as the evening heating load ramps in a 6.1°C cool night. The demand trajectory is tracking the classic autumn evening profile: from the daytime low, demand has added over 1,600 MW in roughly four hours, and the generation mix at the latest interval shows brown coal at 1,422 MW, wind at 1,249 MW, and gas OCGT at 110 MW, with solar contributing zero at this hour. Carbon intensity is 0.6418 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 45.6% — noticeably higher intensity than the midday low of around 0.47 tCO2/MWh when demand was softer and wind penetration peaked.

The price-demand relationship today has been sharply non-linear. Through the overnight and daytime hours — when demand ranged from 4,257 MW to a morning peak near 6,714 MW — prices spent extended periods at or below zero, touching -$12.10/MWh at one interval and holding negative across several hours from around midnight through to midday AEST. That reflects adequate supply relative to demand at those levels. The transition above roughly 5,700–5,800 MW demand is where pricing steps up: the $15.11/MWh price now active is consistent with the band seen each time demand crossed that threshold this evening, and with the market clearing higher-cost marginal units as the coal and wind stack fills.

AEMO forecast RRPs for the 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) half-hour are converging around $33–$38/MWh across recent pre-dispatch runs, which implies further upward price pressure as demand continues its evening ascent. The load forecast trajectory points toward demand levels that earlier today saw prices in that range as the morning ramp reached 6,000–6,700 MW. Tonight's peak is likely to land in the 6,000–6,300 MW range given the 6.1°C ambient and 80% cloud cover suppressing any residual solar contribution and maintaining elevated heating load. Traders should watch the 07:00–08:30 AEST window for the steepest price sensitivity, consistent with where pre-dispatch forecasts are clustering.

One network note: AEMO issued and then cancelled a reclassification of the Yallourn–Rowville 7 and 8 220 kV lines as a credible contingency event due to lightning activity. The constraint set V-ROYP78_R_N-2 was invoked around 04:38 AEST and revoked at 05:39 AEST. No interconnector flows were on the left-hand side of that constraint, so direct price impact was limited — but the episode highlights that transmission security on the Yallourn corridor remains a latent intra-day risk as demand peaks tonight.