Commodity Demand — QLD1 — Wednesday 6 May 2026

Queensland spot price is at $177.81/MWh with demand sitting at 6,494 MW at 06:30 AEST — a sharp acceleration from the $94.73/MWh and 6,249 MW recorded at 06:00 AEST. The price-demand relationship across today's session is pronounced: demand troughed near 5,318 MW around 10:00 AEST at prices in the $39–$55/MWh range, climbed steadily through the morning peak to 7,813 MW at 17:55 AEST where prices reached $122/MWh, eased back into the mid-5,500–5,600 MW range through the afternoon at $82–$120/MWh, then re-accelerated sharply into the current evening ramp. The $177.81/MWh print — sustained across the last two dispatch intervals — reflects the market moving into a steeper part of the supply stack as evening demand builds from its daytime trough.

The most recent AEMO pre-dispatch forecast (issued 06:01 AEST) has the 07:00 AEST half-hour at $105.95/MWh, a notable step down from current actuals, suggesting the dispatch engine expects demand to stabilise or pull back modestly as the evening ramp plateaus. The 07:30 AEST forecast sits at $92.51/MWh, consistent with demand easing off peak. Earlier forecasts issued across the day had been pricing the 07:00 AEST interval in the $117–$124/MWh range, so the downward revision in the most recent run implies AEMO's demand outlook for the next hour is softer than previously modelled.

Overnight load windows from 09:00 AEST onwards show forecast prices collapsing to sub-$40/MWh and into negative territory between 10:30–12:30 AEST, with some intervals as low as -$10/MWh around 13:00 AEST. This mirrors the pattern from today's overnight and midday period, where demand in the 5,300–5,500 MW range produced prices in the $39–$55/MWh band. With 100% cloud cover currently and negligible solar potential forecast for today (daily average solar potential of 1.8), the midday demand trough will not be as deep as a clear-sky day, which tempers the downside price exposure somewhat. Demand-side managers and flexible loads should note the window between approximately 09:00–13:30 AEST as the lowest-cost consumption period, with overnight intervals from 10:30 AEST offering the strongest negative-price signals.