Commodity Demand — NSW1 — Wednesday 6 May 2026

NSW1 spot price sits at $82.08/MWh with total demand at 7,917.5 MW as of 06:30 AEST, and demand is rising steadily from the overnight trough of around 5,820 MW recorded near 11:30–12:30 AEST. The relationship between demand and price is clearly visible across today's profile: the morning ramp from ~5,820 MW pushed prices from the low $40–65/MWh overnight band up through the $80–115/MWh range as demand crossed 8,500–9,163 MW during the 17:30–18:45 AEST morning peak. Prices are now easing back toward the low $80s as demand retreats from that peak, consistent with the mid-morning shoulder pattern typical of autumn weekdays.

The morning peak reached 9,163 MW at 07:45 AEST with a corresponding price of $114.54/MWh — the highest sustained level of the day so far. That demand-price relationship shows reasonable sensitivity: each ~500 MW step up from 7,500 MW toward 9,000+ MW added roughly $30–50/MWh to the clearing price, with the steepest price responses occurring above 8,800 MW. Black coal is carrying 5,119 MW of the current generation mix, with wind contributing 483 MW and solar 158 MW at the 06:20 AEST generation snapshot. Gas CCGT and OCGT are both at zero, indicating the coal-dominant mix is meeting current demand without peaking plant support.

Forecast data for today's evening peak (target times 07:00–07:30 AEST, equivalent to 21:00–21:30 UTC) points to prices in the $70–82/MWh range, a step down from the morning peak. The evening demand build is already underway, with demand climbing from 7,249 MW at 06:00 AEST toward the current 7,917 MW and rising. With autumn temperatures forecast to reach a maximum of only 16.4°C today and an overnight low of 10.6°C, heating demand is the primary driver — the current heating demand index sits at 6.2, with no cooling load. That mild temperature profile constrains how high the evening peak is likely to reach relative to the morning, and the forecast RRP cluster around $70–83/MWh for the 07:00–07:30 AEST window reflects that assessment.

One network factor relevant to NSW demand supply dynamics: an unplanned outage on Directlink Leg 3 (N-MBTE_1 constraint active since 05/05) remains in place, constraining the N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector. This limits NSW's ability to draw on or export to Queensland and adds a degree of supply-side tightness at the margin during peak periods. Overnight load windows forecast prices collapsing to near zero or negative from approximately 09:30–11:30 AEST (00:00–02:00 UTC) as demand bottoms out, presenting the lowest-cost consumption window for flexible loads ahead of the next morning ramp.