Carbon Forecast — Wednesday 6 May 2026

NEM-wide carbon intensity sits at sharply divergent levels across regions as of 06:20 AEST. Tasmania records 0.00 tCO2/MWh at 100% renewable penetration, running entirely on hydro and wind. South Australia follows at 0.08 tCO2/MWh with 83.7% renewables — wind at 592 MW is carrying almost all load, with a 116 MW gas CCGT providing the balance. Victoria sits at 0.64 tCO2/MWh with 45.6% renewables; 1,249 MW of wind is running against 1,422 MW of brown coal and 110 MW of gas OCGT. NSW and Queensland are the highest-intensity regions, at 0.78 tCO2/MWh (11.1% renewables, dominated by 5,119 MW of black coal) and 0.84 tCO2/MWh (4.5% renewables, 1,836 MW of black coal) respectively. Gas and hydro contribute negligibly to both states at this interval.

The trajectory through today reflects the autumn evening profile. Solar output is at zero across all regions at 06:20 AEST — it will not resume until after 07:00 AEST and peaks in a compressed midday window given reduced day length. SA's intensity has been running below 0.10 tCO2/MWh consistently since around 11:30 AEST yesterday, sustained by strong wind generation, and that condition continues now. Victoria saw its lowest intensity of the dataset around 12:00–15:00 AEST yesterday (0.46–0.47 tCO2/MWh) as wind held above 1,200 MW and solar contributed through the afternoon — a similar midday dip is plausible again today if wind holds. NSW intensity has tracked a narrow band of 0.78–0.84 tCO2/MWh throughout, with only modest solar relief during the middle of the day dropping it to the lower end of that range. Queensland has been essentially flat at 0.84 tCO2/MWh since the morning peak, with renewable penetration locked below 5% outside of overnight wind periods.

For carbon-sensitive loads, SA and Tasmania represent the clearest green windows across the full day — SA has maintained sub-0.09 tCO2/MWh intensity for an extended run, and Tasmania is effectively zero-emissions continuously. In Victoria, the 11:00–17:00 AEST window is the optimal scheduling target, where wind-plus-solar has previously pushed intensity below 0.47 tCO2/MWh. NSW offers marginal improvement in the 09:00–11:00 AEST solar ramp, bringing intensity toward 0.78 tCO2/MWh, but the coal baseload floor limits how far that moves. Queensland provides no meaningful low-intensity window under current dispatch conditions — flexible loads in that region should target the overnight wind period (roughly 21:00–01:00 AEST) if deferral is feasible, where renewable penetration has previously reached the low-to-mid 20% range.